Friday 12th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this? JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB 10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west. There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this month. Meanwhile equity markets have been choppy ahead of tonight’s payrolls numbers in the US, whilst the ECB minutes reaffirm that a June cut is likely. But then what? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts this year are looking less and less likely. But how long do they wait for? The Services ISM was weaker than anticipated, could a delay in cuts cause unnecessary damage to the economy? A June cut is far more likely in Europe, where the Eurozone CPI read came in lower than expected. The ECB meeting minutes out today will be eagerly perused for any indication to the contrary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even though today’s Eurozone inflation number could be lower than expected. There’s also discussion of the RBA minutes, which seem a little more hawkish than the tone set in the statement and press conference.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tueday 2nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and Asia, and overseeing development of Bloomberg’s European broadcast operations. Bronwyn joins Phil Dobbie to give her take on where monetary policy is right now and you’ll find some of her observations contradict the consensus. The Fed, for example, she thinks will move later and are unlikely to see through the three cuts markets are expecting. The ECB, meanwhile, have every reason to cut sooner. Longer term she thinks interest rates around 3 percent will be healthier for a growing economy. Listen into a wide-ranging discussion covering Europe, the US, China and the influence of Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculating on the direction inflation is taking. Adding to the volatility is the question about how much intervention we can expect from Japanese authorities as the Yen fell to its lowest level since 1990. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the days action and looks bac at yesterday’s Australian CPI, as well a s highlighting a new JBWere report looking at the shift in wealth to Australian women. We also look ahead to this afternoon’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The next move is expected to be down, but the question that remains is when? The bank of Japan lifted themselves out of negative interest rates, as expected, but Ken says they did a good job of dampening any expectations of a rigorous tightening cycle. Tomorrow, the FOMC meets, with the focus on the dots plot – how many and what will be the endpoint?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.