US inflation rebound. What now?

Monday 27th February 2023

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Markets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story. 

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