Mike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking Markets
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike shares his outlook for early signs of risks emerging in the economy and how those risks could impact markets throughout 2022. Drawing comparisons between the 2022 tech sell-off and the 2000 dot-com crash, Mike explains how the Fed is going to break markets. After walking us through his macro framework, Mike shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Elon Musk just took out one of the biggest personal margin loans ever for his bid to buy out Twitter. Here's why Wall Street banks lined up to back the risky move. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-margin-loan-twitter-takeover-morgan-stanley-2022-4?r=US&IR=T Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/03/global-supply-chain-pressure-index-march-2022-update/ The Fed will plunge the US into a major recession by hiking rates above 5%, Deutsche Bank predicts. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-recession-warning-federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-deutsche-bank-2022-4 European Leaders Blast the Cutoff of Russian Gas to Poland and Bulgaria as 'Blackmail': https://time.com/6171594/russia-gas-nato-poland-bulgaria/ Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics? http://ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/2/123250431/pandemics_jst_restat_final_feb2021_main.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Top Stories of The Week (10:14) Worst Take of The Week (15:49) Feature Interview with Mike Green (24:33) Fed Balance Sheet Reduction (28:56) The Neutral Rate & Fed Rate Hikes (35:55) Will The Green Transition Be Inflationary? (37:20) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (41:13) Mike's Actionable Trade Idea (49:26) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
