Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the profile of countries capable of thriving in a volatile and uncertain macro environment. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro 2:30 – U.S. Macro 7:50 – China Macro 22:06 – Inflation in Europe 27:30 – Brazil and Indonesia -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective no matter who wins the elections and prospects for investing going forward. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:34) – Econ + political impact of the earthquake (15:50) – Turkey’s upcoming elections (38:00) – Policy changes and investment implications -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. -- Timestamps: -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and...

It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future is necessarily authoritarian. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:11) - Market Update (14:48) – How to think about debt (28:05) – The Xi-Putin visit and the future of China (36:48) - Soft Power -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain, before turning to a very introductory discussion of generative artificial intelligence and why Jacob should probably start using ChatGPT as a tool for his analysis.  -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:36) – The future of energy (26:06) – The future of crypto (43:11) – What is GPT, Why Should I Care? -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They close with some thoughts on whether SVB will have any contagion in Europe before making a defense of deep generalists against over-specialization. Jacob's email is jacob@cognitive.investments -- Timestamps: (3:43)– What happened at SVB? (12:10) – How we knew something was wrong in 2022 (31:30) – What we are focused on in the future (36:38) – What about Credit Suisse and Europe? (41:53) - In Defense of Generalists -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamran’s prediction from December that the end of the Iranian regime is nigh. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (1:49) – The Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement. (30:20) – Turkey’s view + a brief aside on the evolution of Saudi Arabia (47:28) – The role of India 52:00 – The future of Iran -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed resuming its previous hawkishness and tease out underappreciated areas of the economy where more expensive capital could have consequences, especially related to U.S. energy production. From there, they take a brief look at geopolitics in Egypt and Turkey before turning to the biggest geopolitical news of the week you probably didn’t pay attention to – the rapprochement in South Korea-Japan relations. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:48) - Market update (16:20) - Egypt (24:55) – Turkey (30:08) – Japan/South Korea -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts. Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-on-china-the-west-and-the-fog-of-war-with-jacob-shapiro/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob breakdown China’s shockingly good PMI data and what it will mean for inflation and U.S. dollar strength. From there, they look closely at European economic data and walked away chastened about Europe’s prospects for the rest of year. Midway through the podcast, Rob and Jacob offer a new segment – “Anatomy of a Trade” – and discuss recent positions (long wheat, short soybeans) in CI’s Macro strategy, before closing with some thoughts on the future of Mexican democracy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Intro (01:50) – China PMI data/strong U.S. dollar (18:16) – Yikes on the EU (29:08) – Long wheat, short soybeans (50:06) – Mexico -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Emily de La Bruyère on to the podcast for a robust debate about China’s global intentions and the future of U.S.-China relations. In a conversation blissfully bereft of inane chatter about spy balloons, Emily and Jacob disagree about China’s strategic intentions and the extent to which the U.S. is dependent on China. From there they discuss the critical role of Europe in the U.S.-China bilateral and before honing in on specific ways listeners can make use of these conflicting (sort of) narratives. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:51) – What does China want? (15:50) – Who is more dependent on who? (24:20) – A solar case study (41:15) – Whither Europe + Action items -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why time is not on the side of the latter – before closing with some thoughts on a geopolitical shift in the Philippines and the pitfalls of strategic ambiguity in Taiwan.  -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (1:48)– Market update (6:40) - Energy Price Rebounds (8:15) – China and Coal (25:08) – 1 Year of Russia-Ukraine War (42:30) – Taiwan and Philippines -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: China Coal Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-20/china-s-coal-mining-boom-is-running-on-fumes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines? If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them? Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents. They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offer thoughts on Pakistan and India’s divergent policy directions, and speculate on the future of EVs! Special guest appearance by HRH Anne the Love Shapiro. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (1:40) - China Housing Updates (13:00) - China Developing Food Security (19:10) – Pakistan is Quadrupling Coal (23:04) – Indian Growth and the Costs (30:02)– Lithium and nickel prices roll over (32:36) - EV's (38:05) - EU + Poland drama -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (1:14) - U.S. coalition against China (13:14) – Ukraine War (34:14) – Multipolarity (42:30) – India (52:11) – Kyrie Irving -- Marko's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or not Ukraine will be receiving some fighter jets to move into offensive mode. Tune in to learn more! -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (1:40) – The next 12 months of the war (23:50) – Assessing Europe’s true resolve (36:10) – Who bombed Nordstream? (44:00) – Is Ukraine getting fighter jets? (52:50) – How long will the US and EU pitch into Ukraine? -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

What happens when you have wage growth inflation, a consistently shrinking workforce, historically low unemployment, and surging investment from the government? How do human capital issues (e.g. disability rates, death rates, declining life expectancy) and inflation play off of one another across the markets? Rob and Jacob explore the concept of human capital from a variety of angles, starting with the a breakdown of the concept and the issues that threaten to slow down the US economy. They proceed onto possible solutions, the implications of these issues on macro investment, and end with some sage wisdom on why we should stay optimistic. Tune in! -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (1:20) – Prayers for Turkey (2:29) – The human capital problems in the U.S. (11:30) - What trends can we use to explain these problems? (21:50) – Are there solutions? Can we turn it around? (35:25) – What are the investment implications? (50:23)- Reasons for Optimism -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

What the heck is up with these Chinese Balloons? -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Balloons -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced In The Show: -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives? -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (4:00) - What is nuclear fusion? (11:30) - Why is nuclear fusion Important for the future of humans? (24:15) - What are the different ways to achieve fusion? (30:00) - What are the safeguards in place to stop runaway fusion? (36:00) - Why was this recent breakthrough so important? (43:50) - What is the timeline for nuclear fusion? -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply across supply chains and mutual beneficial agreements - leading Jacob to ask some serious questions about their commitment to non-alignment. Peru is still on quite shaky ground politically, so copper is obviously in the same place, and they take a deep dive into the most important unobserved Central American copper hub. Finally, Rob lets us in on Mexico's stock market bonanza, and the political reasons that underlie it all. Tune in to find out more! -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:10) - Global Macro Rundown (13:00) - The Philippines (19:00) - The US-China Trade War (25:40) - India-US Relations (30:30)– Peru + Copper + Oil (37:23) - Copper + China Reopening (40:00) - Important/Unimportant News Stories (41:20) - Mexican Stocks + Next Presidents + Cartels -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (2:40) – David’s background (10:00) – George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S. China Relations (21:27) – Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship (45:34) – The year ahead in U.S.-China relations -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Referenced: Link to David’s recent article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-022-00117-y Link to George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations: https://bushchinafoundation.org/ David’s bio: https://bushchinafoundation.org/people/david-j-firestein/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp