As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - John Blaxland (ANU)  - Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research)  - Collin Koh (RSIS) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:03 PART 2 - 18:47 PART 3 - 44:05 Outro - 1:03:10 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/dis... For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord. On the panel this week: - James Ker-Lindsay (LSE) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 01:30 Outro - 14:37 RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024. Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Delving into the shadowy realm of the small arms trade, we unravel a web of clandestine dealings and backroom deals that span the entire globe, arming insurgents, equipping terrorists, and bolstering criminal networks, thus creating some of the world's most volatile regions. As these weapons cross borders, both through legal and illegal means, their paths become increasingly complicated, yet the underlying fundamentals beneath the trade remain stubbornly rigid. In this deep dive, we seek to unpack the trends that drive the industry, identify which markets are currently hotbeds of small arms sales, and explore the nuanced dynamics that completely change the procurement patterns of cartels or regional insurgency groups. We unpack a hypothetical scenario of a theoretical insurgency group to demonstrate the unexpected challenges faced by these groups, with a panel of industry experts: On the panel this week: - Nicholas Marsh (PRIO) - Franz J. Marty (Swiss Institute for Global Affairs) - Mark Bromley (SIPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:25 PART 2 - 24:47 PART 3 - 44:32 Outro - 1:00:34 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Haiti grapples with an unprecedented crisis, the spectre of state collapse under the weight of rampant gang violence has cast a long shadow over its future. The Caribbean nation, once a beacon of freedom and resistance, now finds itself mired in a power struggle that pits armed gangs against each other in a bid for dominance of the nation, leaving civilians caught in the crossfire. Amid this chaos, the international community watches with bated breath as plans for an intervention loom on the horizon, sparking debates on sovereignty, the efficacy of foreign assistance, and the potential for lasting peace. Yet, the success of such an intervention hinges on a myriad of factors, including the willingness of local actors to cooperate and the ability of external forces to navigate the complex socio-political terrain of Haiti. With the stakes higher than ever, the question remains: Can the proposed intervention quell the violence and restore stability to this beleaguered nation, or will the chaos simply continue? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Marlene L. Daut (Yale Uni.) - Jess DiPierro Obert (Investigative Journalist) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) - Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:47 PART 2 - 20:37 PART 3 - 35:52 PART 4 - 52:17 Outro - 1:10:56 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at:  https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the world stands on the brink of a new era in nuclear warfare, attention now shifts to the United States' ambitious modernisation programs and the burgeoning arms race in nuclear weapons development. This surge in advancement raises pivotal questions about the future of global security, the balance of power, and the implications of cutting-edge atomic technologies. Yet, these moves also ignites an international arms race, with nations scrambling to not only match but surpass each other's nuclear capabilities. Amid this whirlwind of technological escalation and strategic repositioning, the essential question arises: How will the United States navigate this new nuclear landscape, balance the thin line between deterrence and aggression, and what implications will this arms race have for global peace? To dissect these complex issues, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Andrew Futter (Uni of Leicester) - William Alberque (IISS) - Donald N. Jensen (USIP) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:30 PART 2 - 26:59 PART 3 - 49:35 Outro - 1:01:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Europe is banking on Poland to valiantly secure its Eastern frontier, recognising its pivotal role along the CSTO's Western border and Poland's steadfast backing of Ukraine. However, a deeper examination reveals tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over everything from legal standards to concerns about recent large-scale procurements, raising questions about Poland's integration within the EU framework. With Poland's economic position and its role in European defence under the microscope, a critical question emerges: Can Poland effectively balance its commitment to regional security with its EU obligations, and what impact will its disputes with the EU have on its political future within the bloc? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group) - Michał Baranowski (GMF) - Edward Hunter Christie (FIIA) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:20 PART 2 - 22:07 PART 3 - 37:06 Outro - 1:04:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Businesses considering the great decoupling from China face the dilemma of finding a new manufacturing hub, with India emerging as a popular choice due to its large workforce, affordable labour, and investor-friendly leadership. However, a closer examination reveals complexities in India's economy, raising questions about its readiness to replace China as the world's factory and its ability to navigate challenges still hampering India's growth. Can India replace China in the global supply chain, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Velina Tchakarova (FACE) - Ashoka Mody (Princeton) - Arjun Ramani (The Economist) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:39 PART 2 - 10:31 PART 3 - 38:44 PART 4 - 1:00:55 Outro - 1:17:40 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russia's naval forces, structured around six distinct fleets, are navigating turbulent waters in the current geopolitical climate. While all six of these fleets have seen modest improvements, especially in their submarine capabilities, the conflict in Ukraine is now stretching resources thin, with senior figures from within the Navy warning that the Army's problem today, is going to be the Navy's problem tomorrow. This looming situation poses critical questions, like how will Russia's navy will adapt to these emerging challenges, and what programs are likely to face the chopping block when times get tough? So to help us answer those questions, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Nick Childs (IISS) - Mark Galeotti (RUSI) - H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:44 PART 2 - 27:40 PART 3 - 50:16 Outro - 1:10:33 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sudan is entangled in a rapidly escalating civil war, marked by widespread protests, violent clashes, and an alarming surge in refugees fleeing the turmoil. Amidst this chaos, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) swift advances are now intensifying fears of a potential state collapse, one that would likely plunge the region into chaos. With a fragmented government and military embroiled in enforcing their contentious autocratic rule, Sudan's path to peace appears increasingly precarious. So why are more and more outside actors getting involved here? What happens if the state does collapse, and who is supplying these forces with the means to wage this war? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Will Brown (CSIS) - Joe Siegle (ACSS) - Will Carter (Norwegian Refugee Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 07:03 PART 2 - 29:20 PART 3 - 49:16 Outro - 1:02:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Argentina's incoming president, Milei, was queried about reclaiming the Falkland Islands for Argentina, following the path of his predecessors by vowing to seek their reclamation. These claims, coupled with intense media scrutiny, have fueled increasing speculation about a potential second invasion of the Falkland Islands. But are these speculations well-founded, or merely ongoing rhetoric? Will these threats intensify into a more significant conflict between Argentina and the UK, and if so, how might such a conflict unfold? We present these questions to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Tim Fish (Shepherd Land Systems) - Wilder Alejandro Sanchez (Second Floor Strategies) - Kevin Fleming (Kings College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:00 PART 2 - 22:32 PART 3 - 33:15 Outro - 45:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - David Schenker (Washington Inst) - Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:07 PART 2 - 22:00 PART 3 - 42:22 Outro - 1:01:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The unsettling trend of Extrajudicial Killings is on the rise. A method once used mainly by the US and Russia is now being increasingly adopted by many more countries, mostly targeting defectors and opposition living abroad. With these methods ostensibly looking like a path for governments to end their most vocal opposition without consequences, the appeal is certainly clear. However, some worry that the normalization of these incidents may lead to a future where killings of controversial figures become more and more frequent on a global scale? We put this to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Sean McFate (Georgetown) - Andrei Soldatov (CEPA) - Greg Miller (Washington Post) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:38 PART 2 - 28:22 PART 3 - 52:02 Outro - 1:02:18 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hong Kong, is witnessing an unprecedented erosion of its "One Country, Two Systems" framework, as China tightens its grip on the region. The once clear demarcation of autonomy is now blurred, with pro-democracy aspirations clashing against Beijing's relentless advance. Beijing economically needs Hong Kong to remain open to the West, but politically worries about its effect on the mainland. So this week we sit down with our panel of distinguished experts, to unravel the complexities of this delicate situation, explore the implications of China’s moves here in Hong Kong and shed light on the intricate web of illicit financial flows and covert operations in play. On the panel this week:  - John Fowler (International Intrigue) - John Coyne (ASPI) - Dan Harris (Harris Sliwoski) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:37 PART 2 - 21:43 PART 3 - 37:20 Outro - 57:14 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Moldova, flanked by the complex dynamics of Eastern Europe, currently stands at a critical juncture in its geopolitical fate, as the simmering conflict in Transnistria, exasperated by the recent upheavals in Ukraine, has crafted a unique tableau of challenges and opportunities for both sides. Moldova's conventional forces and Transnistria's Russian-backed units each face unique pressures and advantages in this evolving context and both Moldova and Transnistria are being nudged into recalibrating their strategies or risk being swept into the storm of wider regional strife. Will Moldova's military reforms lend them a crucial edge, will the Transnistria conflict ignite into a full-blown confrontation, and how does the broadening Eastern European turmoil shape this potential flashpoint? To answer that we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week:  - James Ker-Lindsay (Uni of Kent) - Dan Darling (Forecast International) - Stephen Blank (FPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:07 PART 2 - 23:06 PART 3 - 49:09 Outro - 58:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/       Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran, ensnared by its mountainous borders, now faces multifaceted threats from all directions and their strategic position is becoming increasingly perilous along every axis. Neighbours like Azerbaijan and Pakistan now pose mounting challenges to national stability, while inaction also risks problems fermenting elsewhere. As Iran's now overstretched military copes with multiple engagements across the region already, the Iranian military, defence industry and IRCG are being warned that they must undergo structural reforms or be crushed from all sides. But will the Iranian military embrace the reforms, will recent tensions in the Caucasus draw Iran into the conflict, and would a deepening relationship with Russia or China salvage Iran's hard-fought strategic gains? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week:  Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:45 PART 2 - 28:46 PART 3 - 50:56 Outro - 67:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador finds itself grappling with both gang violence and geopolitical shifts. Between 2013 and 2016, murder rates soared due to gang wars and systemic extortion. President Nayib Bukele, emerging from this tumult, removes the safety catches from the government and actually tackles the issue. However, all of this is coming at a long-term cost. How does Bukele's regional vision mesh with the complexities of Central American geopolitics, and does this new path set Bukele on a collision course with the US? Join us as we dissect El Salvador's evolving position on the world stage. On the panel this week are: - Robert Guest (The Economist) - Nik McNally (The Red Line) - Margaret Myers (Inter-American Dialogue) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:04 PART 2 - 24:29 PART 3 - 42:59 Outro - 54:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The economic feasibility of Nuclear Power is under an unprecedented microscope, with evolving energy solutions and changing market dynamics, the mathematical foundation that once supported the nuclear industry's robustness is now slipping. While traditional energy giants like the US, France, and Russia grapple with the shifting sands of economic viability, emergent green energy leaders are questioning the place of nuclear power in tomorrow's energy mosaic. Is nuclear energy a mere bridging solution in our transition to a carbon-neutral future, or is it an unsustainable relic of the past? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul Dorfman (SPRU) - David Schlissel (IEEFA) - James Acton (CEIP) Intro: 00:00 PART 1: 05:32 PART 2: 22:30 PART 3: 33:56 Outro: 52:50 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The potential conflict between India and Pakistan stands at a precipice of alarming complexity, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours navigate a tangled web of historical tensions, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions, and with India's rapidly evolving military capabilities and strategic partnerships, the landscape of South Asian defence dynamics is shifting. The theoretical pitfalls of a confrontation between these nations would have far-reaching implications, not just for the subcontinent, but for the global order. From cyber warfare to conventional battles, what would a war between India and Pakistan entail? We ask our panel of experts to unpack the scenarios, strategies, and stakes posed by this conflict: On the panel this week: - Chris Clary (Uni of Albany) - Arzan Tarapore (CISC) - Christine Fair (Georgetown) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:01 PART 2 - 30:40 PART 3 - 53:51 Outro - 1:13:51 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

UUVs or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, are set to make the same kind of impact that UAVs previously made on the modern battlefield. With their vast operational capacities and affordable price tags, we are not only seeing major players like the US, Russia, and China engaged in a dire dash for future ocean supremacy, but also several smaller players who previously were locked out of the subsurface battlespace due to the high costs of conventional submarines. Will these new weapons serve merely as long-range recon vehicles for the major powers, or will UUVs be at the forefront of seabed warfare and underwater infrastructure sabotage? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Samuel Bendett (CNA) Bruce Jones (Brookings Inst.) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:06 PART 2 - 31:13 PART 3 - 47:51 Outro - 64:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Red Line has reached our 100th episode, and it has been an amazing journey putting all of these episodes together. But how accurate have our predictions been? We have been engaged in analysis and reporting for nearly 5 years now. So, we sat down and meticulously went through 2,000 pages of transcripts, episode by episode, to assess how many of our predictions on the show have come true and how many were incorrect. This week's episode features no guests, but rather includes clips from across all 100 episodes of the program. For more information, please visit our website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices