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FiveThirtyEight Politics

How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

FiveThirtyEight Politics
FiveThirtyEight Politics
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time?
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FiveThirtyEight Politics
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