Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
About Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
This episode is sponsored by Amber Group Jim Leitner serves as President of Falcon Management Corporation and CIO of Falcon Family L.P., a family office. Previously, he worked as a foreign exchange trader at Morgan Guaranty, as Chief Dealer at Bank of America International, as Vice President for proprietary trading at Shearson Lehman and as Managing Director in the Global Trading Department at Bankers Trust. Jim was a member of the Yale Investment Committee from 2004 through to 2010. In this podcast we discuss why inflation could be more persistent, thoughts on bank crises, owning rather than using options, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss reframing the bank crisis as a duration bubble, how inflation distorts time, why shelter prices are not falling faster, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss how financial institutions manage mortgages on their books, what triggered sub-prime/global financial crisis, why households and mortgage markets are safer today than 2008, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Timothy Ash is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss what caused the collapse of the Soviet Union, why Russia didn’t have a quick victory against Ukraine, China brokering peace deal, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss current trends in Japan inflation, outlook on BoJ actions, comparison between Prime Minister Kishida and Abe, and much more. Visit our website here: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
Richard founded Oldfield Partners in 2004.The firm is a value-style asset management firm with over $4bn in assets under management. Richard was Chairman of the Oxford University Investment Committee and of Oxford University Endowment from the latter’s inception in 2007 until 2014. He holds a BA Hons in History from Oxford University. His book about investing, ‘Simple But Not Easy’, was published in 2007 and new edition was published in 2022. In the podcast, we talk about the trouble with private equity and hedge funds, outlook for value investing, why smaller teams make better investment decisions, and much more.
Deborah Seligsohn is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on Chinese politics, US-China relations, and public health, energy and environmental politics in China and India. Prior to her academic career, she served as the Beijing-based Principal Advisor to the World Resources Institute’s China Energy and Climate Program from 2007 to 2012. Before that, she served as the Environment, Science, Technology and Health Counselor at the US Embassy in Beijing from 2003 to 2007. In the podcast, we talk about Deborah’s experience in China as zero COVID was lifted, what is China’s climate policy, China’s non-carbon future and much more.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about the impact of US sectoral shocks, hard landing risks, European growth outlook, and much more.
Niels is the Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe) which has a track record going back over 45 years. He has been in the managed futures business for over 30 years having held management positions in and started multiple CTA firms. He is most widely known for the Top Traders Unplugged podcast. Alan is the Founder and CEO of Archive Capital – a boutique alternative investment research firm. Prior to founding Archive Capital, he was Managing Director and a member of the investment committee at Abbey Capital. In total, he has worked in the financial markets for over 25 years at hedge funds and investment banks as a CIO, hedge fund allocator, macro strategist, and technical analyst. This week's podcast covers the evolution of types of trend-following strategies, the importance of diversification across markets, why trend performed poorly before COVID, and much more.
Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers why the US Treasury market is fundamentally broken, the rise of HFT and algo trading, the diverges uses of Treasuries, and much more.
Andrew Revkin is one of America’s most honoured and experienced environmental journalists and the founding director of the new Initiative on Communication and Sustainability at Columbia University's Earth Institute. He’s written on climate change for more than 35 years, reporting from the North Pole to the White House, the Amazon rain forest to the Vatican - mostly for The New York Times. He has held positions at National Geographic and Discover Magazine. He’s written books on the dawn of Earth's Anthropocene age, the history of humanity’s relationship with weather and climate, the changing Arctic, global warming and the assault on the Amazon rain forest. His work has been turned into film including the triple-Golden-Globe-winning HBO film “The Burning Season,”. This week's podcast covers what Andy learned living on a boat, thoughts on nuclear energy, how views have changed on the environment and climate change, and much more.
With everyone taking a well-deserved break over the holiday season, we decided to dig through our archives to bring you our most-listened-to podcast of 2022. Back in July, we interviewed Ivy Zelman – best known for calling the top of the housing market in 2005. Turns out, she had an extremely prescient call to make in our interview too... Enjoy! Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’ Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors - America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss: How COVID impacted housing Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices Why housing demand is falling
Agathe Demarais is the Global Forecasting Director of The Economist Intelligence Unit. Agathe has a special focus on trade, sanctions, European affairs, Russia and the Middle East. As The EIU’s Global Forecasting Director, Agathe oversees the publication of The EIU global outlook. Prior to joining The EIU, Agathe worked in the diplomatic corps of the French Treasury. She spent five years in Russia and three years in the Middle East, where she developed her knowledge of sanctions and policymaking. Agathe is the author of the new book ‘Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests’. This week's podcast covers: How sanctions impact local populations US extra-territorial power and impact on multi-nationals US dollar as weapon
Shannon O'Neil is the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on global trade, supply chains, Mexico, Latin America, and democracy. Did globalisation increase that much in the past? Japan’s important role Why South America didn’t regionalise
David Rubenstein is Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group – one of the largest private equity firms in the world. Prior to forming Carlyle in 1987, David practiced law in Washington, D.C. with Shaw, Pittman, Potts & Trowbridge LLP (now Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP). From 1977 to 1981, Mr. Rubenstein was Deputy Assistant to the US President for Domestic Policy. Among other philanthropic endeavours, David is Chairman of the Boards of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Economic Club of Washington, and the University of Chicago. David also serves as a Fellow of the Harvard Corporation and as Chairman of the Harvard Global Advisory Council and the Madison Council of the Library of Congress. David is a magna cum laude graduate of Duke University, where he was elected Phi Beta Kappa. Following Duke, David graduated from the University of Chicago Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review. This week's podcast covers how private equity has evolved, common patterns of star investors, why social class matters for investors, and much more.
Fred Thiel is the CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings – one of the largest bitcoin mining companies in North America. Prior to this, Fred co-founded Sprocket, a blockchain and cryptocurrency technology and financial services company that focused on creating a single aggregated global trading marketplace. Before that, Fred served as CEO of Local Corporation, a Nasdaq-listed leader in online local search and digital media. Outside of these roles, Fred has founded and run numerous tech companies both in hardware and software. This week's podcast covers attempts at building a crypto exchange, how mining helps move to renewable energy, thoughts on FTX, and much more.
Gerard is a senior fellow with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS after nearly 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community. From 2018 to 2021, DiPippo was a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council, where he led the intelligence community’s economic analysis of East Asia. He also was a senior economic analyst at the CIA focused on East Asia, South Asia, and global economic issues. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, structural pressures vs zero-COVID policy, how China sees the Russia-Ukraine war, and much more.
Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School’s Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.
Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing. Previously Igor was the CIO for ADG Capital Management LLP from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that he spent 9 years at IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB where he was a Partner and Head of Portfolio Management and Research. Igor graduated from Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1986 where he obtained a Master’s degree in Computer Science. In this podcast we discuss how to model central bank reaction functions, use of valuation models, how to manage risk, and much more.
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