Friday 31st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Banking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if you listen to the likes of Isabel Schnabel at the ECB or Andrew Bailey at the BoE. But markets are still pricing in cuts later this year. NAB's Ray Attrill talks through why the discrepancy between central banks and markets and makes a bold prediction on what the RBA will do next week. Today’s retail numbers and inflation later in the week could still influence the outcome, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Uncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor, says not. Meanwhile, central banks are determined to continue on their counter-inflationary path of rate hikes, with some I the Fed expecting a few more of them before they are finished. So, what of the RBA? We get the monthly inflation data and retail sales this week, but it seems likely they will raise next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down, it’s still very high. He suggests it could serve as a reminder that the RBA also has to keep its eye on the ball. Only significant signs of a weakening economy will change the attitude of central banks, who have separated out their monetary goals from banking pressures. Todays PMIs will give a snapshot of how some of the leading economies are faring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil, will do some of the work for them. Next, it’s the Bank of England. It seemed likely that there would be no move but could that change with a surprise increase in UK inflation announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are also investigating ways to remove the upper cap on deposits covered by FDIC insurance. That’s all helped to boost equities and drive strong increases in bond yields. The question remains, has there been any lasting impact on the speed and destination for central banks? A 25 basis point hike is well-priced for the FOMC tomorrow, but the revised dot-plots will be of more interest. Catch all the news on that in tomorrow morning’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there seems to be some acceptance that this is a Swiss-only story, and AT1 bondholders would count before equities in the pecking order in the case of other banking right downs. So, now, as markets seem to be accepting that the banking crisis is contained, does that mean central banks – like the Fed this week – can push higher on rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean we see bond yields falling further and watered down expectations for central bank hikes, including the BoE and Fed this week? How can central banks tread the path between fuelling more banking uncertainty and pursuing their path for controlling inflation? The first central banker to face such difficult questions could be the RBA’s Christopher Kent, first thing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. Hence, bond yields and equities have come bouncing back overnight. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are less sure of a rate hike from the RBA next month, even though Australia reported a strong increase in employment yesterday and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s unlikely to stop the ECB from pushing ahead with a rate rise later today, but banking uncertainty has certainly switched attitudes in the US on where the Fed is heading, with growing expectations that they will start cutting rates in the second half of the year, possibly up to 100bp before Christmas. The Fed’s job has been made a little easier with softer data overnight, including a flat PPI read for February. Locally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is the focus today whilst elsewhere the question is, what happens next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI and last week’s US payrolls there would have been every reason to expect a 50bp hike next week, but markets seem more set on 25bp. Today’s retail numbers will play into that decision. Sally says the RBA is lucky that it’s next meeting is not so imminent, but yesterday’s NAB business survey showed labour costs picking up a little, which is a concern. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some analysts predicting an end to rises, at least for now, from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its likely they will push ahead with their fight against inflation, but on a slower path. It’s still possible that the ECB will lift rates by 50bp this week. But what if the US inflation read today comes in stronger than expected? How do markets react then? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So how does the Fed respond to this shock to the system, which has been facilitated in part by rising bond yields. NAB’S Tapas Strickland reckons the Fed will be more cautious with future hikes and a 50bp hike next week is looking less likely. The collapse overtook any interest in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which showed an upside surprise in employment numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate. The surprise from the Bank of Japan was no surprise, with Kuroda leaving quietly with no change in policy. Meanwhile, the PBoC is sticking with Governor Yi at the helm, but possibly only fore a few months. There’s a bit of uncertainty to be navigated through, it seems.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs report, which showed a high number of layoffs in January and February. They clearly shrugged off the ADP umbers from a day earlier, which came in stronger than expected. Hopes of an end to rising inflation will have been helped by a negative PPI read from China. The Bank of Japan meets today, for the last time for Governor Kuroda. There’s been talk about a last-minute surprise, but could the surprise actually be no surprise at all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th March 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.