Set NATO's Sights on the High North

Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist from the sixth century BC, in his classic work The Art of War emphasized the importance of securing the “precipitous heights” before one’s adversary, due to the advantages elevated positions afforded a defending army. There is no “higher ground” on Earth than the Arctic. The Arctic is rapidly changing as it experiences climate change at a rate greater than twice the global average and polar sea ice recedes and thins.1 The first ice-free Arctic summer, under a high-emissions scenario, could occur as soon as 2042.2 These changes are resulting in increased human activity in the region as global actors explore opportunities to exploit its natural resources and strategic geographic location.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Intro

2:00 Jim talks about why he believes that NATO is not doing much in the Arctic as opposed to other parts

4:13 Marisol explains if the Alliance feels like it is behind in times when it comes to its presence in the Arctic and why it should be in the region

7:17 Marisol also explains what is hindering the Alliance from doing anything in the Arctic region and the challenges it faces

9:18 Jim explains why the strategy on China is being formulated but not a strategy on the Arctic, which is on the territory of NATO

13:14 Jim also talks about NATO increasing its attention in the Arctic now that the Russians started to move into the region and if the Alliance is late

16:29 Jim and Marisol talk about if it is more expensive for the US to move back to Iceland as compared to if they had stayed there and why they regret ever moving out of Iceland

21:09 Jim also talks about why NATO needs to move forward in terms of reaffirming the rules-based order in the Arctic and focus on deterrence

24:02 Jim also explains if there’s a big appetite for moving into another multinational agreement between Russia and the US since it’s pulling out of agreements with Russia

26:09 Marisol explains the purpose of their paper and how the Russian would feel if it were to be considered by NATO and what would be the consequences

29:21 Jim also talks about if the Secretary General of the Alliance support their recommendation and what he says about it

32:24 Marisol and Jim talk about China and it presence in the Arctic and how that will push NATO to also increase its presence there and why

34:56 Marisol also talks about the unique governance structure of Svalbard and why it could be an area of concern

Shows Mentioned: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/set-natos-sights-on-the-high-north/

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/

The Arctic is a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth. The Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and parts of Alaska, Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden.

As the White Paper makes clear, the Polar Silk Road essentially refers to the shipping routes comprising the Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage and Central Passage that cross the Arctic Circle and connects the three economic centers of North America, East Asia and Western Europe

Crimea is a peninsula located on the northern coast of the Black Sea in Eastern Europe that is almost completely surrounded by both the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast. The status of Crimea is disputed.

The NATO-Russia Council (NRC) was established as a mechanism for consultation, consensus-building, cooperation, joint decision and joint action. Within the NRC, the individual NATO member states and Russia have worked as equal partners on a wide spectrum of security issues of common interest.

The Munich Security Conference is an annual conference on international security policy that has taken place in Munich, Bavaria since 1963. Former names are Wehrkundetagung and Münchner Konferenz für Sicherheitspolitik. It is the world's largest gathering of its kind.

The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan.

Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. One of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas, it's known for its rugged, remote terrain of glaciers and frozen tundra sheltering polar bears.

Quotes Mentioned: “Arctic will be the terrestrial domain of consequence for the 21st century and if not, we should act as if it will be.” “NATO is a consensus based organization and some actors within NATO just aren't thinking about the Arctic because they have more immediate concerns in other parts of the world.” “Russia is on a trajectory of wanting to be the dominant Arctic power in the 21st century.” “NATO shows that it can operate effectively and have a persistent presence in the Arctic, nothing it wants to do or steer the debate or influence countries regarding the Arctic are going to matter at all.”

Guests Social Media Links: Jim Danoy: Website: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/james-p-danoy/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim-danoy-b459521a2/ Company Website: https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/jim-danoy/

Marisol Maddox: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marisolmaddox/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Marisol_Maddox Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marisolmaddoxofficial/ Website: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/marisol-maddox