Threaten Decisive Nuclear Retaliation

The danger of nuclear war in Europe is greater than it has been since the Cold War—and growing. A sputtering economy dragged down by low energy prices impedes Russia from competing with the West in advanced technology and conventional military capabilities. Yet, under Vladimir Putin, Russia is menacing its neighbors, including NATO’s Baltic members, diverting attention from its domestic woes. As a result, Russia is increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons and the threat to use them first, and it is pursuing an advantage in nuclear forces in Europe. In the face of this challenge, NATO’s stated nuclear strategy is too stale, vague, and timid to ensure deterrence. This podcast offers an alternative strategy to reduce the danger of nuclear war in Europe.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Intro

2:17 David talks about reasons why Russia is more reliance on using the nuclear weapons in an event of an attack and what makes the situation now more dangerous than in the 80s and 90s

4:47 David explains what would happen is Russia attacked a NATO member and what would happen if NATO attacked Russian territory

5:56 Hans also explains why they think the risk of potential nuclear war is greater today than it's been in the past

8:04 Hans and David also share their thoughts on what NATO needs to do to prevent additional risks that might occur since Russia has more nuclear warheads that NATO Nations

10:26 Hans and David also explains how NATO would have command to the nuclear weapons from its members since it don’t have the nuclear weapons itself

12:54 David talks about NATO’s Nuclear strategy, if the strategy is clear and how Russia interprets the strategy

14:15 David shares his thoughts on the nuclear strategy of NATO on the use of the nuclear weapons

15:30 Hans and David talk about why there is no consensus on the use of nuclear weapons inside the Alliance due to lack of one voice in members

17:13 Hans and David explains the difference between threaten and retaliate used in their essay, the purpose of those words and the term first use in terms of nuclear weapons

18:32 Hans and David share their thoughts on if NATO would retaliate if at any circumstance it were attacked using the nuclear weapons

21:51 David and Hans talk about if Russia would doubt that NATO wouldn’t use nuclear weapons to retaliate and the US started testing its missiles

25:37 David also talks about the reasons that are making the INF situation very difficult to term it as dead

29:21 Hans shares what he would recommend NATO to do in terms of trying to solve the INF problem and destroying the nuclear tipped weapons

32:47 David and Hans talk about New START, what it is, its importance and how verification problems lead to its failure

35:33 Hans talk about how the strategic stability between the US and Russia has to be rebuilt to have a meaningful strategic arms control

36:55 David and Hans talk about why China would not agree to be a part of the arms control, and if it would, what would be the impact

40:07 David and Hans share their thoughts on why they think NATO should take the lead and declare that Russia does not have the right to act first in using nuclear weapons

Shows Mentioned:https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/threaten-decisive-nuclear-retaliation/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ https://twitter.com/hashtag/strongerwithallies?lang=en

Quotes Mentioned:“Russia now is in the position where it knows if it got in any protracted conflict with NATO, it would lose and not only would it lose, but it could be threatened.”“Because of weak and conventional forces, Russia is relying increasingly on nuclear weapons.”“NATO doesn’t have a consensus on use of nuclear weapons.”“The purposes of nuclear weapons that are assigned for use on behalf of NATO are not for use unless NATO is attacked with nuclear weapon.”“If Russia is attacked with conventional weapons, it will use nuclear weapons.”“US statement on behalf of NATO really doesn't mean much.”“New START is a president.”

Guests Social Media Links:David Gompert: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/threaten-decisive-nuclear-retaliation/

Hans Binnendijk:https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/hans-binnendijk/