Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors. Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment. Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund3:42 - Funding for Juniors10:43 - The Monetary Environment15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds25:08 - Strategic Investments26:42 - ASA Board Concerns32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy35:10 - A Call to Shareholders37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote41:06 - Future for the Fund?44:33 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18Website: https://asaltd.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University. Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.

Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements. Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized. Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases. Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability. Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector. Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle. A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s. Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit. Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business,

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Rubino, a former Wall Street financial analyst and author, to discuss the current bull market in gold. Rubino asserts that gold's intrinsic value is significantly higher than its present price, which could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. He also posits that a potential collapse of the financial system due to debt could lead to a return to a gold-backed currency or a currency reset. They explore the implications of inflation and currency devaluation on various assets including stocks, real estate, bonds, and gold. John argues that adjusting investment numbers for inflation offers a different perspective on asset value over time. He warns about potential risks in the financial system, such as a commercial real estate crash or an equities bear market. He also discusses the deficit in the silver market, which could result in significant price spikes and potential defaults on futures contracts. Despite uncertainty, John suggests investment strategies for investing in real assets like gold and silver. Investors should consider gold as a long-term investment and focus on positive goals during uncertain times to build capital for future challenges. Gold is currently seen as a store of value, but demand for it is minimal but starting to rise. Once gold breaks through resistance and support levels, it could lead to a significant run in the market. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Gold Market Developments4:10 - Gold Backing & Debt8:15 - Who Will Buy US Bonds?12:45 - Inflation Outlook17:28 - Asset Valuations22 :38 - Gold Drivers & Geopolitics27:26 - Next Financial Crisis?33:10 - Silver & Supply Issues38:10 - Silver Industrial Demand42:38 - Investment Demand & FOMO47:35 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold's potential value increase, reaching $5,000-$10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. Risks of financial panic, potential scenarios like commercial real estate crash or equities bear market. Investment strategies proposed to protect against times of crises. Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.

Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources. Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry's financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business. Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction3:30 - Gold, Bias & Sound Money10:17 - Global Can Kicking17:42 - A No Win Scenario?20:00 - US Commodity Demand22:28 - Feds Levers & Control Risk26:44 - Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs33:50 - Commercial Banks & Economy36:05 - Unhedged Mining44:52 - Gold Highs & Reality49:05 - Mining Industry Health56:17 - Energy & GDP Correlation59:00 - 3 Phases of New Energy1:02:20 - Green Energy Storage1:05:04 - Commodities & Capital1:07:18 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems. Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency. The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future. Guest Links:Website: https://golcondagold.comWebsite: https://evrec.energy Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired). Ravi Sood has a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo.

This is a rebroadcast of our April 10 Twitter Spaces focusing on the recent metal moves, the metals industry, and overall investor sentiment. Bob Coleman and Vince Lanci discuss the effects of big players in the markets and how investor sentiment remains cautious. Jim discusses why margin requirements have to be adjusted during periods of volatility. Vince and Bob discusses at length the various big players in the market and how they influence it along with their general strategies. Lastly, Bob discusses the role of ETF's and the current premiums on physical metals. Note: Unfortunately, the last hour of this spaces was not recorded properly. Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ Vince LanciSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com

Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. They discuss various economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape. Topics range from potential conflicts and their impact on markets to the shift towards physical assets and a gold-backed monetary system. Simon touches upon underreported inflation, economic instability in America, China's role in reshaping the global economy, potential crisis scenarios, and the importance of diplomacy versus war. Simon is concerned about the risk of conflicts escalating, with Russia as a key player, and the emergence of gold-backed currencies to counteract perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies. Additionally, they discuss the significance of rising interest rates, potential crises, and implications for U.S. elections and global geopolitical outcomes. Throughout, Simon encourages caution and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic trends and geopolitical dynamics. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - The World & War5:38 - Equity Complacency7:02 - Russia & Syria9:17 - Economic Catalysts14:32 - Serious Correction18:18 - Leveraged Bank System19:24 - Capital Shifts & China22:57 - Gold Backed Currency29:26 - Dollar & Rates30:53 - Chinese Demographics33:50 - China's Manufacturing37:40 - Nuclear Energy39:31 - China Debt42:32 - Chasing Rainbows44:30 - Europe In Recession48:15 - Inflation Issues52:25 - Expect More Unknowns53:35 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Geopolitical tensions could lead to significant market shocks in equity and base metal markets before mid-year due to underreported inflation and weak economic activity. Shift towards gold-backed currencies is inevitable as countries seek alternatives to perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies, with China and Russia likely taking a leading role. Diplomacy could prevent war, but tensions between the US and countries like Russia suggest that war may be an outcome if Washington continues to support the dollar at the expense of its treasury market. Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/ Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook. Simon established this company in January 1996.

Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario. Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth. Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Bullish Stocks & Gold9:23 - Fed Games & Inflation15:12 - Gold Rally & Disorder17:15 - Gold Vs. Silver18:12 - Metals & Frustration20:30 - Capital Rotation23:17 - Gold ETF Declines24:42 - Metal Investing26:20 - The WHO Quagmire28:44 - Confidence in Media30:18 - Exponential Debt31:49 - Oil & Copper Cycles33:52 - Peak Frustration36:40 - Uranium Fundamentals39:13 - Time to Pay Attention42:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tony is bullish on both gold, miners and the S&P 500. Declining Gold ETF Holdings could signal a shift from paper to physical. Tony discusses the importance of paying careful attention to your portfolio this year. Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years." We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets. He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Tom welcomes back David Brady to discuss future market movements based on Fed decisions and current geopolitics. David suggests that investors should invest in physical silver and gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and cyber attacks. He believes that the pullback from recent highs will be shallow but may require a big event to drive it. David mentions that some people are suggesting $100 silver is a slam dunk and that high beta miners are going to go through the stratosphere. David emphasizes that investing in these assets can be expensive, so people should pick an amount they feel comfortable with and buy as much as possible. This episode also highlights the current equity market trends and how gold and silver are performing. David explains that the recent increase in the price of gold and silver is not due to a specific event but rather a collective reaction to the loss of confidence in the economy. He suggests that the price of gold and silver may continue to rise, as more people seek safety in these assets during times of uncertainty. The interview also touches on the potential impact of the 2020 US presidential election on the value of gold and silver. David believes that the current economic and political environment may lead to a stock market crash and a subsequent decline in the value of assets like gold and silver, which would benefit their investors. However, he also mentions other potential risks facing the economy, such as the banking system, wars, and the loss of confidence in government institutions. David believes that investors have good reason to be bullish on the current precious metal market conditions and expects continued growth in the coming years. However, he also acknowledges the potential risks facing the economy and the political landscape, which could lead to a significant decline in the broader equity markets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Gold Train All Aboard?5:06 - Rate Cuts & Dollar10:19 - Demand & Confidence12:40 - COT Data & Metrics19:22 - Stock Market Thoughts24:12 - Silver Vs. Gold?29:12 - Portfolio Positioning34:48 - Valuations & Silver39:42 - Confiscation & The East43:00 - Housing & Employment45:10 - Gloom, Doom, & Popcorn50:28 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The recent increase in gold and silver prices is likely driven by a collective reaction to economic uncertainty, not a specific event. Investing in physical silver and gold can provide a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and other black swan events. A pullback from recent highs may be shallow but requires a big event to drive it. Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/Fund Website: https://4779Capital.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce. He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life. David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.

Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator. According to Hamilton, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with seasonality playing a small role. He noted that gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold prices, presenting a significant opportunity for investors. Hamilton pointed out that physical demand, such as Indian weddings and Chinese New Year, contributes to the underlying strength of the gold market. However, he emphasized that sentiment and herd mentality are crucial factors in the current rally, particularly during the spring season when optimism and exuberance tend to increase. Adam also discussed the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) and how it can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends in gold futures markets. He tracks changes in speculators' long and short positions over time to identify periods of buying or selling that may indicate a change in market sentiment or trend. Hamilton also highlighted the importance of tracking gold ETF holdings as an indicator of investment demand for gold. However, he noted that it is essential to distinguish between physical demand and ETF demand when analyzing the gold market. He suggested breaking down western physical demand into categories such as bars and coins and foreign demand from regions such as Europe and Asia. Hamilton believes that there is still significant potential for investment demand to drive up the price of gold, with speculators having only completed 55% of their total potential buying since the uptrend began in early October. He also pointed out that retail investors will drive the surge in demand for physical gold, leading to reports of shortages and pushing up the physical price. Adam is interested in the potential of physically-backed digital gold currencies, especially among younger generations who are attracted to digital assets. He believes there will be high demand for a Bitcoin-like tradable vehicle backed by physical gold, making it easier for people to own and transact with gold. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Recent Gold Moves2:36 - Seasonality & Asia4:30 - Miner Performance5:45 - Seasons & Sentiment7:46 - Investor Shift?9:48 - Supply & Demand11:53 - 2020 Vs. 202413:33 - Driving Factors15:43 - Gold Indicators18:20 - Types of Gold Demand21:00 - West Retail Buying?23:38 - Mining Sectors24:58 - Fundamentals & FOMO28:26 - Money Supply/Inflation32:06 - Hedonic Adjustments32:47 - Compelling Thoughts?35:32 - ETFs & Physical Gold37:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold prices rally due to fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and seasonality. Undervalued gold stocks present a significant opportunity for investors. Physically-backed digital gold currencies could attract younger generations. Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions. After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning. By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters. Customers raved,

Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith discusses his 2024 gold outlook report which focuses on cause and effect in markets and economy, analyzing the impact of rising interest rates on GDP components like consumption and wages. Higher interest rates reduce the burden of paying wages but also decrease credit availability, affecting businesses' ability to operate. Consumers may sell assets as wages and other expenses tighten up. Keith discusses the use of lagging indicators like employment and yield curve inversion to predict economic trends. Employment is said to be a lagging indicator because it reacts to changes in the economy with a delay, and its predictive value is reduced due to the Feds influence on employers. Yield curve inversion, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term ones, has historically signaled an upcoming recession. However, Keith argues that this indicator should be interpreted carefully because the Fed only controls short-term rates, and a yield curve un-inversion may actually signal the Fed's reaction to a credit crisis rather than its cause. The low interest rate environment of the past 40 years has driven businesses to take on more risk and leverage to achieve returns. This has resulted in the creation of "zombie companies" that have profits less than their interest expense and cannot survive without artificially low interest rates. A recent study found that 20% of corporate debt was zombie debt before interest rates started to rise. The impact of hiking interest rates on these companies is uncertain, but it has not yet resulted in widespread issues. It seems that the current economic situation, with high inflation and rising interest rates, is leading to a process of supply destruction in many industries. This means that in order for companies to maintain or increase their return on capital, they will need to destroy a significant amount of supply, which will likely result in job losses, bankruptcies, and a lot of pain for entrepreneurs and investors. The market will only reward the best and luckiest actors in this situation, as those who got loans earlier or have lower cost structures may be better positioned to survive. This process is not necessarily merit-based, but rather determined by timing and luck. Keith, who predicted a $2300 gold price for this year, notes we are close to reaching it. This rise is due to physical demand in the East and not speculation as seen before. Gold may drop less during a crisis compared to other assets and could make new highs soon after. There's less leverage in the gold market now, leading to less price drop during liquidation and potentially higher prices post-crisis. The LIBOR rate, previously an indicator of unsecured credit rates between banks, is no longer quoted and has been replaced by the SOFR rate, which reflects policy as it is a secured overnight funding rate using Treasury bonds as collateral. Gold's future price should be higher than spot due to carry costs, primarily interest rates. The calculated fundamental price attempts to determine the price of gold if speculators did not influence the market. Dubai sees high demand for physical gold, with an estimated 500-700 tons a year being unofficially exported through retail purchases by tourists. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Spending & Wages5:07 - Consumer Squeeze7:36 - Lagging Indicators10:48 - Yield Curve Inversion14:40 - Returns, Risks, & Zombies22:02 - GDP & Gov't Spending23:23 - Credit Tightness24:37 - Supply/Demand Issues29:12 - Fed & Capital Costs37:07 - 2024 Gold Performance41:28 - Next Crisis & Fed Cuts43:54 - SOFOR & LIBOR48:12 - Jewelry Trade & Dubai50:47 - Wrap Up & Gold Report Talking Points From This Episode The impact of rising interest rates on GDP components and their role in creating "zombie companies."

In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics speaks with Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeff discusses his background and what brought about the creation of the CPM Group. CPM Group's research department was established in the late 1960s to gather data and estimate supply and demand for gold and silver as the gold standard was ending and silver was being removed from coinage and currency systems. The company has a strong track record of accurately projecting prices due to their continuous gathering of data and maintaining a global network of contacts. Jeff discusses the recent demand for gold from investors has been high, with net investment demand for physical gold totaling 25, 26, and 24 million ounces in the last three years. This level of demand tends to cause an increase in gold prices, as seen by record annual average gold prices every year for the past four years. The price of gold has increased significantly since 2000 and is expected to continue to rise in 2024 and 2025 due to several macroeconomic drivers. Despite inflation coming down and interest rates rising, investment demand for gold remains strong. Governments and central banks are buying gold to diversify their reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China, in particular, has a growing appetite for gold due to centuries of political disunion and civil wars, making the yellow metal a safe haven for them. Jeff discusses the impact of The Shanghai Gold Exchange in taking some market share from London, with Chinese investors paying higher premiums for gold compared to the West. The Chinese currency's lack of free trade also affects gold prices in the country. While some gold has moved to China, there are still multiples of the amount of gold built up in Switzerland over the last 10-20 years. The amount of gold being mined is down somewhat from its peak due to reduced exploration and development spending during a period of lower gold prices. However, higher gold prices in recent years have led to an increase in investment in exploration and development. The capital markets tend to be short-term and cyclical, which can create challenges for long-term financing needs in the industry. Lastly, Jeff discusses the lack of interest from investors and speculators in gold miners is due to a range of issues, including changes in the equity markets and institutional investment practices. The gap between the performance of smaller companies and large companies has never been wider, making it more challenging for smaller mining companies to access capital. CPM Group's 2024 Gold Yearbook provides in-depth information on the gold market and its trends, including charts and valuable historical data not found elsewhere. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - CME Research History7:18 - Recent Gold Demand10:10 - Main Macro Drivers12:48 - CME Gold Outlook17:44 - Fed Rates Normalizing?20:12 - U.S. Debt Servicing29:16 - Dollar & Euro Demand31:38 - Dot Plots & Projections33:10 - Gold & Election Uncertainty36:48 - Media Narrative Divide38:40 - Impact of Bitcoin40:30 - Demand During Crisis?44:42 - Lower Rates & Gold?47:34 - China & Gold50:55 - Shanghai & Pricing54:14 - Production & Demand55:20 - Miners CapEx & Supply59:58 - Silver's Role1:01:02 - Strategic Role?1:04:15 - CBDCs & Hyperinflation1:10:32 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode CPM Group's gold research spans 30+ years, providing unbiased data & analysis. Outlook for gold through 2024/2025 and why demand remains high. Thoughts on the Dollar, Treasuries and the long-term debt of the United States. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general,

Bob Miner, a seasoned trader with over 40 years of experience, joined Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss his insights on the current market trends. Bob emphasized that trends and countertrends are based on group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism. He shared a story about a "nephew indicator" that is more reliable than economic indicators for understanding market extremes. Bob discussed his approach to trading in the foreign exchange (FOREX) market, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying fundamentals and technicals of a currency pair. He also discussed the current state of the gold market, noting that it is currently in a bullish uptrend but may be approaching a potential sign of completion. In addition, Bob discussed commodity and inflation indices, specifically focusing on uranium. He believes that uranium may be about to complete a correction before continuing its upward trend. Bob also emphasized the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions if signs of a breakout failure appear. Bob has been studying the U.S. election cycle and its impact on stock market trends for over 25 years, and he has developed a book that is considered the definitive guide to this topic. He provided a table showing the percentage gain for each month from the spring low to the summer high since 1952, indicating that there has only been one year when there was a loss from the spring low to the summer high. Talking Points From This Episode The importance of understanding group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism in predicting market trends. The relevance of fundamentals and technicals in foreign exchange (FOREX) trading, especially in understanding currency pairs. The potential for a bullish uptrend in the gold market, but also the possibility of a sign of completion and the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Robert's Background3:27 - Key Market Catalyst6:23 - Trading Vs. Forecasts10:19 - Exiting Trades12:35 - Fed, Trends & Dollar20:10 - Gold Charts & Trends33:23 - Dollar & Treasuries40:57 - Crude Oil/Inflation44:08 - Analysis & Factors48:00 - Crude Weekly Chart52:10 - URA ETF Monthly56:59 - Elections/Markets Book1:07:42 - Bitcoin Report1:13:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://dynamictraders.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobAtDTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrtHpWM3GlFmCdqCkOL3xAg Robert Miner began his career in the mid-80’s with his first company, Gann-Elliott Educators, where he produced analysis reports for the major financial markets and presented live workshops in the U.S. and overseas. In the mid-90’s he founded Dynamic Traders Group to provide market analysis and trade strategy reports, practical trade education and developed his Dynamic Trader Software. Robert wrote the first self-study trading course in 1989 where he expanded on and integrated the work of W.D. Gann, R.N. Elliott and his own unique approach to Fib time and price target strategies into his own comprehensive and original approach to multiple time frame time, price, pattern and momentum trade strategies. Robert’s first book, Dynamic Trading, was named the “Trading Book of the Year” by the SuperTradersAlmanac and he was named the 1997 “Guru of the Year”. His book, High Probability Trading Strategies, has been one of the consistently top selling trading books since its release in 2008. It has become a must-read classic trading book of practical trade strategies. Robert is recognized as one of the few trading educators with an actual multi-year record of trading success. In 1993, he won first place in an annual real-time, real-money trading contest for futures. In more recent years, he has demonstrated the effectiveness of his practical trade strategies with audited returns and awards five consecutive years for real time trading contests with double and triple digit annual returns fo...

Tom welcomes back David Skarica, publisher and founder of Stockchart of the Day, about a potential threat to market stability. Skarica sees increased frothiness in the market, with Bitcoin ETFs being launched and widespread optimism about Bitcoin reaching 150k - 300k, similar to the behavior seen in 2017 and 2021. He warns that investors should be cautious about the current state of the market and consider investing in assets that can protect their wealth during market downturns. Skarica points out that the top 10 largest stocks now account for 29% of total market cap, similar to the height of market bubbles, with stocks like NVIDIA and Apple trading based on growth rather than sales. He suggests looking at NVIDIA's chart and other related stocks to understand the market better. The US government has been issuing more short-term debt instead of taking advantage of low long-term interest rates, which could lead to problems when the debt needs to be rolled over in the future. The market is demanding higher returns on US debt due to increasing debt levels and higher spending, leading to a potential sovereign debt crisis in the US. Commodities and gold markets are also anticipating this potential crisis, with commodities near resistance levels and gold breaking out. Skarica discusses the reissuing of debt and the potential for a shorter maturity on those bonds due to the real rate of return. He notes that there is currently more demand for two-year treasury bonds, which have a fixed market and yield 4.6%, compared to 10-year bonds, which are subject to price fluctuations and have lower yields. Skarica warns of the risk of buying long-term bonds, as demonstrated by the TLT ETF, which has decreased in value by 40% while only offering a 0.5% yield. David discusses the potential convergence of various economic cycles, including a debt cycle and a Dow theory cycle, and what this could mean for the price of gold and the capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle in the mining industry. He suggests that loose monetary policy and QE tend to lead to investment in sectors that were not the focus of the previous market bubble, such as emerging markets, commodities, and inflation-protected sectors. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Threats and Markets4:38 - Recent Market Rally10:40 - Corporate Vs Gov't Debt16:58 - Maturities & Bonds26:00 - Dow Transport Avg27:40 - Rates & Market Forces31:21 - Debt Monetization33:28 - Japanese Yen Chart36:29 - Liquidity & Demand38:20 - Fed Talk & Rates41:08 - Soros & Efficient Mkts.44:30 - Bulls & Bear Documentary45:47 - Gold & CAPEX Cycle50:43 - Irrational Markets?55:52 - The Green Dream59:55 - Fun/Risky Markets1:02:27 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Epsiode Investor caution is urged due to market frothiness and potential threat to stability. Top 10 largest stocks account for 29% of total market cap, similar to past market bubble peaks. US sovereign debt crisis possible due to increasing debt levels, higher spending, and demand for higher returns on debt. Guest Links:YouTube: https://youtube.com/@scotdayTwitter: https://twitter.com/DavidSkaricaPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/stockchartoftheday David Skarica is the Founder and Editor of Stock Chart Of The Day a popular newsletter known for its stellar performance in both up and down markets. Skarica entered the financial markets at a very young age and became the youngest person on record to pass the Canadian Securities Course at the age of eighteen. David is a regular speaker at trade and investment conferences in Canada and is a guest on the Business News Network (BNN), Canada's flagship business broadcasting network. His work has appeared in publications such as the Bull and Bear Financial Report, Barron's, Investor's Digest of Canada, and Canadian MoneySaver. Skarica also writes Gold Stock Adviser, an investment newsletter for the conservative media outlet, Newsmax. David's book, Collapse,

Tom welcomes Mark O'Byrne back to the show. Mark is the Founder of Health Wealth Gold. Mark O'Byrne, a precious metals expert, sees value in gold and silver as insurance against various risks, including internet shutdowns and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) technology. He emphasizes that governments with extensive powers can threaten individuals' finances, especially in a cashless society. While cryptocurrencies offer an alternative digital gold, O'Byrne warns of the risks associated with digital assets. Internet shutdowns, which have occurred in democratic countries like India to control narratives and dissent, can disrupt financial systems, including Bitcoin, gold ETFs, and digital gold platforms. Although off-chain transactions are possible for some Bitcoin users, they aren't viable for many. The vulnerability of digital assets highlights the importance of physical assets like gold and silver in a diversified portfolio. O'Byrne also discusses potential government restrictions or bans on certain technologies, such as Bitcoin, due to concerns about backdoors into devices. He suggests that most assets are now accessed via usernames and passwords, creating risks if there are vulnerabilities in digital platforms. The expert also cautions against assuming a global financial crisis and bail-ins are inevitable, noting the importance of understanding the complexities of these issues. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in gold and silver bullion products from new private mints globally, leading to high inventories and decreased premiums for non-legal tender bullion products like silver and gold rounds. However, O'Byrne observes an uptick in demand for both metals and anticipates positive fundamentals for silver due to declining production in Mexico and Peru and increasing international demand. Despite some concerns about silver stackers potentially selling their holdings when the price reaches $30 per ounce, O'Byrne remains optimistic about the future of silver. He advises investors to take profits instead of waiting for unpredictable price targets set by gurus and suggests following him on Twitter or LinkedIn for updates on his research and insights into the gold and silver markets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Interconnected World5:18 - Digital Asset Risks8:08 - Cash During a Crisis11:40 - Censorship & Control20:22 - Bank Failure Risks27:47 - New Mints & Bullion34:42 - ETF Inventories36:12 - Bullion Banks39:12 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Mark recommends gold and silver as insurance against risks like internet shutdowns, EMP technology, and cashless society threats. Governments may restrict or ban certain technologies like Bitcoin due to concerns about digital platform vulnerabilities; physical assets remain crucial in diversified portfolios. Despite potential for a silver sell off around $30 per ounce, O'Byrne observes increased demand and positive fundamentals. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/marktobyrneWebsite: https://www.taracoins.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtcpfS0ZjfQEeOyYbw6xeYgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markobyrne/ Mark O’Byrne is one of the leading authorities on silver and gold internationally with a high profile in social media & mainstream media having appeared on RTE, CNBC, Bloomberg and most Irish and international print, radio and tv media. He founded GoldCore, Ireland’s largest gold and silver broker in 2003 and exited in 2020 after his team and he had made it Ireland’s largest gold broker and storage provider. GoldCore became a respected gold bullion specialist internationally with over 20,000 clients in over 140 countries and over €1 billion in sales. History was his degree and he has a lifelong interest in monetary history and gold and silver and their role in protecting people from currency devaluations, the decline of nations and Empires,

Tom welcomes back Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence to the show. Mike discusses the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on gold and Bitcoin. He suggested that investors should consider having exposure to both as part of a diversified portfolio, as they serve different purposes. There has been a shift in investor sentiment towards digital assets, with significant outflows from gold ETFs and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. McGlone also cautioned that the US stock market is overdue for a correction, which could impact both gold and Bitcoin. Regarding the current state of the financial markets, McGlone believes the US stock market is overvalued compared to the rest of the world, and a reversion could lead to a deflationary environment benefiting gold, crude oil, and copper. He also expressed concerns about the relationship between the US and China, stating that a conflict could have significant implications for the global economy. Regarding gold, McGlone noted its outperformance compared to the S&P 500 since the Fed started tightening in late 2021. However, he also mentioned a gap in the S&P 500 E-minis at around 4600, which could lead to a normal correction in the stock market, benefiting gold by flushing out weak longs and creating a more stable environment. The interview also touched upon inflation, deflation, and the US dollar. While there has been a deflationary impulse in commodities, inflation is being driven mostly by services due to unprecedented money pumping measures by the Fed. The US dollar will remain unstoppable compared to other fiat currencies, but open discourse is crucial for maintaining its value and strength. The speaker added that a significant test for the US stock market could trigger a catalyst needed for the West to start driving gold prices along with the East. When this reversion to the mean occurs in the overvalued US stock market, it will have a profound impact on markets. They also suggested following Mike McGlone, an analyst who covers the gold and commodities markets, on Twitter for more information on these topics. Talking Points From This Episode Mike McGlone recommends considering both gold and some Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio. He warns of an overdue US stock market correction that could affect markest and potential for deflationary benefits to gold, crude oil, and copper when a reversion occurs. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bottoms on Commodities3:09 - Gold, ETFs, & Bitcoin8:54 - Metals & Recession Risks11:40 - Thoughts on Silver13:50 - Equity Markets & Recession18:44 - U.S. Recession Risks21:20 - Rate Hike Lag Effects24:06 - Yield Curve Thoughts26:17 - Elections & Market Volatility29:23 - Commodities & Deflation31:12 - Q.E. & The Dollar35:06 - Gold East Vs. West?37:28 - Gold Vs. Equity Returns39:15 - Mean Reversion40:13 - M2 & Equity Prices41:46 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/ Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures. Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University.

Tom welcomes back Bob Coleman and Steve St. Angelo to discuss the precious metals markets. The market is undergoing a significant shift, with more sellers than buyers and dealers finding it difficult to sell at profitable prices. This has resulted in a collapse of bids and an increase in spread risk. There are also risks associated with storing metals with dealers due to counterparty risk, storage risk, and the structure programs they may be involved in. The market has moved from retail demand to a paper market that is shorting precious metals, causing prices to rise but sentiment to remain negative. Investors are waiting for lower prices to buy again. The spike in silver prices could be due to increased inventory buying by wholesale dealers who then sell futures contracts to finance their purchases. This carry trade can become unsustainable if the price of silver rises and dealers are forced to buy back their futures contracts at a loss, potentially fueling further price increases. High premiums in the silver market could indicate that someone is stuck on the wrong side of a trade and trying to exit, causing the futures market price to rise. The situation is not so much a physical issue as it is a paper problem, with CTAs holding large short positions in silver. In the gold market, GLD flows and gold prices have historically moved together, but this relationship changed when interest rates started rising rapidly in mid-2022. Institutional investors have not sold much of their gold or GLD, suggesting that most of the selling is happening outside the institutional market. The strong demand for Treasuries at high-interest rates and reduced central bank gold purchases might be driving the price of gold. There has been a shift in capital allocation from ETFs holding metals to other asset classes, particularly technology stocks. This trend poses challenges for precious metal investors but also creates opportunities for those who can identify value and navigate the current market conditions. They note that there is a risk of reaching a "max stupid point" where the market becomes overheated and unsustainable. Market psychology appears to be shifting towards a dot-com bubble mentality, with everyone chasing after Bitcoin and other high-tech investments, making it difficult for precious metal investors to make their case. Bob also warns of the risks associated with storing metals with dealers and suggests that investors should ensure they are doing business with a reputable and sustainable company. Gold and silver markets are heavily influenced by paper trading, hedging, financialization, and cost of production. Shifts in demand from east to west and short squeezes in the futures market can impact prices. ETFs that hold physical metals but issue new shares based on demand carry a risk of decreasing premiums to net asset value if the price of the metal falls. It is important to understand the complexities of paper trading and hedging in these markets, as well as the potential for market manipulation by authorized participants and market makers. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Physical Demand14:06 - Recent Premiums17:21 - Public Sentiment20:33 - Silver Wholesale Market23:25 - Who's on the Wrong Side?32:10 - SLV/GLD & Retail Sales36:30 - Gold Drivers & Treasuries45:10 - Asset Values ETFS & Crypto47:52 - Flows Out of ETFS53:18 - Sentiment & Solvency58:27 - Know Your Counterparty1:04:28 - SLV Borrowing Costs?1:07:45 - Current Rally Outlook1:11:20 - Bitcoin Mining Stocks1:13:27 - Treasuries & Collateral1:14:48 - Public Momentum in PMs1:18:22 - NatGas & Energy Inflation1:21:05 - Central Bank Buying1:22:34 - Financialization & ETFs1:27:00 - U.S. Debt & Treasuries1:29:40 - Silver & Flows1:31:08 - Geopolitical Suppression?1:34:10 - Eastern Price & Silver1:43:53 - Price Impacts of Shorts1:46:38 - GME Squeeze & Markets1:52:33 - GLD/SLV Withdrawals1:58:17 - West-East Metal Flows2:00:00 - Overseas Storage?

Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates back to the show. Larry discuses the current inflation outlook and compares it to the 1970s, noting the current driving forces are different but "rhyme" with the past. Expectations play a significant role in inflation, with people believing prices will rise. The International Swaps and Deals Association (ISDA) has written to the Federal Reserve Board suggesting that the market for treasuries is becoming less liquid, which could be problematic. The ISDA recommends eliminating the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing banks to buy more treasuries without repercussions and potentially monetizing federal deficits. This move would increase money supply growth, currency dilution, and demand for sound money investments. Mr. Lepard believes that the US federal budget deficit will continue to rise, with the current administration accelerating fiscal irresponsibility. He predicts that sound money assets like gold and Bitcoin will increase in value, with gold potentially reaching $3,000 per ounce by year-end. The Federal Reserve is balancing three mandates, but its emergency powers have led to increased leverage and complex trades. The federal government's debt is not sustainable, and when investors take notice, it could lead to a sharp repricing of bonds with significant consequences for the economy. Lepard is optimistic about a return to sound money standards post-hyperinflation but sees no signs of this happening soon. He believes that gold can go as high as $10,000 per ounce and encourages investors to allocate a good portion of their assets in things the government can't print. The current market conditions provide an opportunity for investors to consider selling stocks and buying gold as protection against economic uncertainty and stock market volatility. Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Inflation Outlook8:06 - Fed & Expectations10:08 - Infinite Q.E. Endgame12:02 - Crossing The Rubicon20:50 - End of the BTFP26:03 - Fed is Trapped32:30 - Bananna Republics & Cans36:47 - Currency Failure List48:30 - Market Tops & Liquidity53:49 - Hard Asset Mkt. Sizes58:08 - Commodities & Risks1:04:07 - Investor Time Horizon1:08:22 - Inflation Vs. Returns1:10:50 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Contrasting inflation today with that of the 1970s. A possible method being discussed to deploy additional stealth easing via the banking system. The importance of having sound money when markets are near all-time highs to mitigate risk. Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepardBitcoin Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czdPJpRa9KI Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline," discusses the global population decline and its economic implications in a recent interview. According to Bricker, fertility rates are dropping, leading to accelerated population declines since 2016-2017, even earlier than anticipated in China. This trend has significant consequences for economies that rely on people for growth and labor. The global baby boom generation will reach retirement age by 2030, causing a rapid impact on the workforce. Countries like Japan and Italy already experience annual population declines. The UN offers three population projections: high variant (14 billion), medium variant (10.4 billion by 2100), and low variant (8.6 billion). Bricker notes that the median variant, representing the UN's projection, assumes a replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Environmental chemicals could impact hormonal disruption in fertility rates, but Bricker attributes the primary cause to cultural and psychological factors, such as humanity's changing perspective on creating future generations. Additionally, immigration and adapting to the birth rate of one's country of residence are common. Declining global fertility rates and population growth present challenges for the economy, as consumerism and consumption decrease with aging populations, leading to slower economic growth. Governments face political challenges when attempting to address these issues by pushing back retirement ages. Countries like Japan, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Hungary are already grappling with significant population declines. Bricker acknowledges that the degrowth movement sees human activity as harmful to the planet and suggests fewer people would lead to less consumption and a better environment. However, he believes they underestimate the impact of such a transition. Bricker emphasizes that declining fertility rates require adaptation and will result in a different world for future generations. Data on declining fertility rates has become increasingly compelling, making it difficult to deny the issue. Bricker notes that this situation is unprecedented and requires careful consideration when making long-term business decisions, particularly in industries like mining and natural resources. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Population Trends3:26 - Rapid Changes5:20 - U.N. Projections7:12 - Births & Urbanization10:45 - Family Economics14:07 - Retirement Age & Labor16:02 - Offshoring Labor21:09 - China Policies22:16 - Peak Projections25:46 - The Cake is Baked27:27 - Immigration?29:26 - Environment & Hormones32:20 - Possible Solutions?34:10 - Compelling Data35:40 - Future Resource Demand39:10 - Wrap Up Guest links:Website: https://www.ipsos.com/Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/darrellbrickerAmazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Planet-audiobook/dp/B07MGSC2X5/ref=sr_1_1?sr=8-1 Bricker is the current Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, a polling, research, marketing, and analysis company. While Bricker was completing his B.A. studies, he began to specialize in research, polling, and analysis methods. This led to further specialization during his M.A. and Ph.D. After completing his Ph.D. at Carleton University in 1989, Bricker was hired in the Office of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney as the Director of Public Opinion Research. After a year in the Prime Minister's Office, Bricker was hired by the Angus Reid Group, a polling and analysis company that eventually merged with Ipsos.

Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the show. Michael begins by focusing on the current state of the US financial system and potential risks ahead. With the bank term funding program expiring next week, there may be stress in the banking system as banks will have to repay credit received and take back their assets. Other risks include rising unemployment rates, impacting various loan markets, and indicators such as a contraction in the manufacturing sector for 16 months, an inverted yield curve, and increasing bankruptcies. Michael suggests that the economy is unhealthy and unbalanced, favoring the wealthy while harming the middle class and lower-income individuals. Michael feels there's potential for another liquidity crisis in the US banking system. While the Fed could implement measures like another bank term funding program, it would be problematic amid high inflation, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and a sovereign debt crisis. He argues that options for addressing a liquidity crisis are limited and any measures taken may have unintended consequences. Mr. Pento believes we're in a bubble economy due to excessive money printing and low interest rates. Pento expects inflation to continue to rise, leading to a recession and potentially a serious bear market for stocks. Pento discusses the relationship between gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that Wall Street and the general public have been more focused on Bitcoin due to its higher profile and influence of sponsors in financial media. He believes gold is a more reliable store of value and better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin. Michael advises investors to pay attention to economic cycles and consider active steps for protection, like diversifying into precious metals and actively managing your investments. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Fed & Liquidity Levels3:39 - Bitcoin Tangent6:14 - Fed BTFP Program End9:38 - Unemployment & Banks11:48 - Economy & Manufacturing14:58 - Debt, Defaults, & Problems19:52 - Fed Inflation & Printing25:00 - Good Intentions & Roads27:10 - Gold Positioning & Rates30:20 - Hype Train & Bitcoin/Gold32:37 - Miners Vs. Physical34:18 - Avoid Losing Money!36:39 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Bank term funding program expires shortly which may cause increased stress in the banking system as banks must repay credit and reclaim assetss. Potential risks to financial sector include rising unemployment rates, impact on loan markets, and multiple negative indicators. Limited options exist for the Fed to address a liquidity crisis, and any measures taken could have unintended consequences. Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.

Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show. Kevin discusses the concept of "rolling mini bubbles" in markets. These bubbles form when an asset class or theme gains popularity among hedge funds, causing price increases based on perceived momentum rather than underlying value. Muir cited Tesla and the electric vehicle (EV) market as examples, noting that while these bubbles can inflate quickly, they also deflate rapidly. Muir suggested that certain stocks, particularly those related to EVs and artificial intelligence, are currently experiencing a bubble. He advised investors to focus on buying undervalued stocks and mentioned Japan as an area of potential value due to recent government actions benefiting the stock market. Muir also discussed the concept of reflexivity, introduced by George Soros, which suggests that investor actions can influence and be influenced by market performance, leading to more frequent and violent bubbles. The interview touches on Canada's economy, with Muir arguing that it is not as strong as the US despite similar fiscal stimulus during COVID-19. He pointed out that America spent more overall, experienced a larger housing bubble burst in 2008 leading to deleveraging, and currently has lower consumer debt compared to Canada. These factors make Canada more sensitive to higher interest rates, which Muir predicts will negatively impact the Canadian economy. Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact. Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Rolling Mini Bubbles4:18 - Chip Manufacturing8:03 - Demand & Rising Price9:52 - Bubbles & Risky Trades11:12 - Japanese Value Stocks16:04 - Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus25:40 - Spending Canada Vs. U.S.30:40 - Fiscal Dominance Era38:23 - Fiscal Spending & Inflation43:52 - Wags, Inflation & Gold51:15 - Eastern Gold Holdings54:04 - The Golden Endgame58:28 - Performance of Miners1:00:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.com Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes." Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.