Palisades Gold Radio
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Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" to the show. Francis discusses the bond market bottom of March 2020 and the series of rate hikes that came afterward. We're beginning to see the lagging effects of the Feds policy. In addition, there are a series of long-term demographic shifts which are placing great pressure on the system. Both growth and inflation are now moving in the wrong direction, and these contractions will be deeply uncomfortable. He shows the current gold chart and how it appears we are breaking trend lines. He argues that silver will also outperform, it will just occur in a later secondary phase. Gold against most currencies is nearing new highs. It is winning by doing exactly what it should do. Francis discusses where silver will head under various scenarios. The markets today are entirely different from what we had in the 1980s. No one has ever lived in an era like the one we find ourselves in today. The purpose of CBDC's is to create reliance on the state. It is a massive control mechanism. You will want to watch out for new dangerous laws because we're dealing with psychopathic, motivated, and relentless control freaks. He discusses the positives and potential pitfalls of crypto markets in the coming financial system. Bonds are unlikely to drop to the lows of a couple of years ago. It seems likely we are in new territory, but a pullback to the two percent level is possible. We're entering a period of slowing growth and reduced demand, which is affecting the oil markets. Lastly, Francis discusses where markets will likely head based on the ten-year treasury outlook, and it's recent record. Finally, he notes that energy is forecasting hard times ahead. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Rates & Contagion5:32 - Gold Chart & Structures8:56 - Gold Vs. Currencies19:18 - Gold/Silver Ratio25:30 - Timelines & Spikes31:07 - The CBDC Push?42:02 - Usefulness of Crypto?47:47 - Technical Analysis & Oil1:00:12 - Natural Gas & Uranium1:03:22 - Crushing Consumers1:04:30 - US 10Y & 2Y History1:07:55 - Narratives & Risks1:09:20 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Analysis of Fed policy and demographic shifts in the U.S.Gold chart and why it is breaking out against all currencies.The reasons for lag in silver and why it will outperform in a later stage.Energy market outlook and concerns around recession. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
Tom welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo, to discuss the recent banking crisis and the Fed's involvement in it. Luongo believes Jerome Powell is trying to return to a classic regional banking model. He explains how the Fed is betraying the Eurodollar system by having SOFR at odds with LIBOR. Luongo believes Powell wants to undo the damages of the last 15 years and feels it is important to understand the motives of the Fed and globalists. He also suggests that the Fed took out Silicon Valley Bank due to its involvement in crypto, which could have created an escape velocity for trust in those systems, and challenged the Federal Reserve's control of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Powell's move to guarantee the hole in the regional banks' balance sheets has had a positive impact on the local credit unions, which can now start offering positive savings rates again. Additionally, the Fed has created a sump pump for US Treasury demand here in the US banking system, which transfers risk overseas and helps protect credit spreads. Christine Lagarde has been attempting to manage credit spreads, but is running out of bullets. Mr. Luongo discusses the recent shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, which saw the appointment of Ueda as the new head of the bank. Tom suggests that this signals the end of Quantitative Easing in Japan, and that this could lead to the unwinding of the low-yield carry trades that had been supported by the BOJ's yield curve control. He then explains how this could impact Christine Lagarde's efforts to maintain credit spread stability, as the BOJ's yield curve control had been supporting her efforts. Finally, he speculates that this could lead to a weakening of the Euro, potentially leading to its breaking the parity with the Dollar and going as low as 60 or 70 cents. Tom explains the differences between Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell and why Yellen is seen as a political animal. He then explains the differences between the East and West in terms of their monetary systems - the East is moving towards a commodity-backed system, while the West is trying to maintain the old system. Tom concludes by discussing the speed of capital flows, and the need for trust in order for a new system to work. Lastly, the Toms also discussed the importance of reading widely and steel-manning your own arguments to have a strong foundation for forming opinions. Luongo also encouraged listeners to be cautious but avoid panic, and to understand that Davos and other powerful players are still making moves on the board. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Banking Crisis & FED6:36 - Targeting Inflation14:46 - Eurodollar & Crypto17:26 - Bail-Outs & Capitalism22:10 - Spreads & Domestic Mkt.29:25 - Rate Risks & Europe34:20 - Japan & BOJ & Europe45:10 - LIBOR vs. SOFR52:33 - Yellen Vs. Powell58:10 - New Monetary System?1:02:00 - Dollar & Global Trade1:10:46 - Remonetizing Gold?1:18:28 - Picking Rates?1:20:00 - The Bigger Picture1:23:42 - Learning & Growth1:31:14 - The Anti-Info Age Talking Points From This Episode: How Davos and other powerful players still making moves on the board.The importance of raising interest rates to 6-7% and focusing on balance sheet and dollar flow reduction.The potential de-dollarization of the global economy due to US policies.The need for a gold-backed currency to solve the US' unfunded liability problem. Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media. Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat ...
Tom welcomes Robert Moriarty back to the program to discuss the latest in interesting times in finance. Bob explains where the money is really coming from to bail out the recent failures in the banking system, noting that the $200 billion figure has ballooned to $2 trillion. The Federal Reserve has effectively committed to printing $2 trillion in a week, which is unprecedented. Bob believes that the system can't be repaid mathematically, so something is bound to blow up, leading to inflation and deflation in response to the new debt. He also covers the history of banking in the United States and the purpose of the Glass-Steagall Act, as well as the impact of geopolitical risk. Bob expresses his dismay about the quality of the leadership in the US and his concern about the potential for increased conflict. He concludes that there is no real limit to how much money can be spent on bailouts, and that sanctions and conflict risks seem to be increasing, without helping the situation. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - All Debts Get Paid4:28 - Causes & Bond Markets8:23 - Flationary Effects?15:17 - Saudis & Ukraine18:05 - Sanctions & Seizures21:00 - Alt. Competing Systems23:30 - New Standards25:44 - FDIC Bailout-ing27:42 - Cash & Real Assets29:42 - Shares & Margin31:42 - Geopolitics & Conflict37:07 - Collum Year-In-Review41:21 - Gold Price & Miners43:53 - Scary Times46:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Why the existing monetary system is destined for complete failure.The expansion of the BRICS+ countries and heightening geopolitical tensions.What possible actions will the Fed undertake to "fix things" in this environment. Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3 Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons from the Quoth the Raven podcast to discuss the lack of fear in the markets, which is questionable considering the current circumstances. We are still far from the despair of a bear market, and the belief in a return to normalcy has kept equities overvalued. Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is just the beginning of the problem cycle. It may take months for rate hikes to affect the financial plumbing and cause further dominos to fall. Nobody knows if the Fed has things under control or when more issues will arise. The Fed is attempting to quell panic with more panic, and they will likely choose to let inflation win over destroying the economy. This should be a great time for precious metals investors to sit back, relax, and watch the show. The Fed will probably be late with the right response, kick-starting a supercycle for gold. Eventually, they will cave and resume printing, supposedly to restore prosperity. Any move by the Fed will be amplified substantially. Chris believes there will be a major blow up within crypto and the stablecoins, with most of the dollar-pegged coins eventually going to zero. He suggests if dabbling the space then invest solely in Bitcoin and avoid other riskier crypto assets. Lastly, he touches upon the problems with the dollar's reserve status and a recent interview with Andy Schectman on Kitco. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Panic With Panic6:29 - Market Psychology9:36 - Speculative Excrement14:16 - Contagion Risks18:04 - Soft Landing/Bailouts23:12 - Market Risk & Gold27:22 - Fed Policy Effects29:16 - Inflation Re-Targeting32:55 - Crypto Contagion & Banks39:20 - Crypto Dollar Peg Frauds43:50 - Dollar Hegemony Status47:25 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Week's Episode Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is only the beginning of the problem cycle.Precious metals investors should be in an excellent position to relax and watch the show as the Fed willlikely be late with the appropriate action.Why the Fed will allow inflation to win out given the alternatives. Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearchAndy Schectman Interview: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/a-tsunami-of-inflation-one-interview Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media's ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests. Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Tom welcomes Brett Oland, the CEO of Bow Valley Credit Union, about their gold-backed initiative. Brett has been in the banking world for 20 years and he is a chartered accountant and CPA. Brett believes that inflation is a massive problem and it will continue for the foreseeable future, resulting in the devaluation of the US dollar. Brett explains currency printing, debt to GDP ratios, and how governments have crossed the debt to GDP Rubicon. Brett also discusses the environmental hysteria surrounding the green revolution, the US sanction list, and the One Belt One Road initiative, as well as the US unfunded liabilities and the worldwide pension crisis. Tom then asked Brett about the possibility of a European nation, such as Spain, Greece, or Italy, falling as a result of the rise in DXY and commodities. Brett believes the US Federal Reserve will pivot either through quantitative easing or interest rate reductions. Brett suggests that the tool to stabilize the US balance sheet is gold, as it is globally accepted, and the US would need to couple their currency or treasuries to gold to prevent a massive deflationary event. In order to protect Bow Valley Credit Union from the potential economic downturns, Brett has created a strategy to anchor part of their balance sheet with gold. Brett believes this strategy provides an effective way to hedge against tail risks, such as a devaluation event. Brett encourages everyone to talk to their local credit union and push for change in order to protect their finances against inflation. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Background2:09 - A Gold Initiative5:26 - The Convoy Protests9:44 - Fintrac & Policies13:00 - Presentation18:08 - Inflation & Devaluation26:30 - Japan & Yield Control32:16 - Fed & Treasury36:13 - Dollar Global Status38:34 - Importance of Energy42:27 - U.S. Unfunded Liabilities49:24 - Three Options59:16 - Scenarios & Gold1:01:07 - Gold as Insurance1:06:24 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Why gold is an effective tool to stabilize the US balance sheet and hedge against tail risks.Credit unions should consider anchoring part of their balance sheet with gold.Consider talking with your local Credit Union for changes to protect member wealth. Guest Links:Website: https://www.bowvalleycu.com Brett Oland is the CEO and President of Bow Valley Credit Union, a position he has held for the past 4 years. Before his current role, Brett served on the Board of Directors of Credit Union Central of Alberta for 7 years. He was also on the Board of Directors of Bow Valley Credit Union for 6 years, with 2 of those years serving as Chair. Brett holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Calgary and is a Chartered Professional Accountant, Canada. He also holds the ICD.D (Institute of Corporate Directors Designation) from Rotman, University of Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the banking industry, Brett is a highly respected leader in the field.
Tom welcomes back David Hay author, CO-Founder and CO-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. He recently released his book "Bubble 3.0" which is a warning David isn't surprised that Powell intends to maintain these rate levels, which remain well below the CPI. He is trying to cool the markets down, yet bond spreads have recently narrowed. Fixing the problems today is a conundrum, as deficits are rising. He expects credit spreads to widen, resulting in a downtrend for stocks. What happens if government tax revenues decline while the Fed tightens and debt servicing rises? Things will become painful quickly. Central banks' acquisition of gold is running at record pace, and they are not buying U.S. Treasuries, which could be a real problem for the Fed. What if rates have to rise during a recession? We are seeing the weakness in housing markets, especially in Canada, where prices are starting to crack, and commercial real estate is already a disaster. We are in unprecedented territory, where fake GDP growth could occur. This is why people are suffering, as inflation eats up any wage improvements. Monetary policy works with lags, and these are variable but likely inevitable. It is encouraging to see nuclear coming back as energy realities return, even though coal usage is setting records globally. He discusses how the nuclear regulatory commission should be renamed to the anti-nuclear regulatory commission. David believes the uranium market is poised to outperform, as dozens of new plants are being constructed in Asia. He explains why SMR technology could be beneficial for stabilizing the grid, by creating power at a local level. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Central banks are not buying U.S. Treasuries, which could be a real problem for the Fed if rates have to rise during a recession.We are in unprecedented territory, with questionable GDP growth, and inflation eating away at wage increases.Uranium is poised to outperform, as dozens of new plants are being constructed in Asia, and the benefits of SMR technology. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Powell & Higher Rates4:18 - Corporate & Gov't Bonds6:22 - Inflation Factors?13:47 - Fed & Political Risks17:30 - Debt Servicing & Ceilings22:36 - Housing Bubble Concerns25:23 - Consumers & Consequences27:50 - Outlook for the Economy30:50 - Fundamental Shifts?32:43 - Policy Effects33:16 - Gold Ratios & Recession35:20 - Copper Prices & Demand36:47 - Recession Probabilities38:55 - Energy & Inflation42:00 - Best Energy Options45:37 - Anti-Nuclear Commission53:34 - Gold Triggers & Trading55:00 - Bond Opportunities57:04 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://http://evergreengavekal.com/Substack: https://haymaker.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 David Hay is a longtime investment advisor and financial author from Bellevue, Washington. He and his wife, Mindy, now split their time between the Northwest, Southern California, and a few places in between (their two dogs love long road trips). They have six grandchildren, three of who live on the West Coast and three on the East Coast. Dave is desperately hoping for a better world for his grandchildren to grow up in than the one we have right now. In that regard, Dave is an ardent supporter of No Labels, a bipartisan political movement that currently includes roughly 70 members of Congress. He is the recently appointed Co-Chairman of No Labels’ Washington State organization. You can find his financial writings on his substack linked above on a weekly basis.
The Fed was discussing transitory issues, but now they are talking of a mild recession. They have built a house of cards heavily reliant on rates and printing, and no one knows what could break in the system today. The unintended consequences of their actions could lead to a collapse. Despite this, the Fed may be reluctant to curb interest rates, meaning we could be in for a protracted period of recession lasting several years. Investors today are used to the Fed coming to the rescue, particularly since 2009. But if they don't, markets and investors will be confused about how the recovery will work out naturally. Credit card debt is skyrocketing and car loans are seeing defaults, leading Gareth to believe we are in for a long drawn out recession. People have been overspending since the end of the lockdowns, and soon will have to cut back. Countries with resources, particularly metals, will likely do better than most. China is seeing a surge in demand internally, and it will be interesting to see if this leads to an inflation surge. Gold is still attractive for its use as a fear trade, and can also do well during inflation. However, it has yet to outperform this year. Servicing the debt will put a burden on the system, while corporations will also have issues refinancing. There are many layoffs coming as a result. Gareth believes the downside for gold is minimal, and the upside is potentially amazing. Silver is trickier to gauge because of its industrial demand aspects, but should perform well if your time horizon is longer than average. The dollar could continue higher if we get through this recession, which will in turn pressure metals and equities. We need to keep an eye on the jobs numbers on Friday. The decline in natural gas futures has been impressive and we are now in a trading range. Gareth still believes the Bitcoin markets are likely due for a further decline, and that we are seeing similar patterns. A bear market rally appears to still be in play, and a pullback to 18,000 or even lower seems likely. A recession or pullback in equities will also impact the crypto space, so lower targets remain possible. Gareth believes regulations in crypto will benefit the markets, as it will allow institutions into the space. Right now, legally they would have a lot of trouble investing. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Feds In Control?3:50 - Rates & Recession5:18 - Weakness Starting?7:29 - Global Outlook & China9:12 - China, Copper, & Steel10:40 - Gold & Inflation12:30 - Black Swans & Tensions13:28 - S&P Outlook Charts16:36 - Gold Chart20:36 - GDX Outlook?21:58 - Silver Chart23:00 - Dollar Direction24:15 - Energy - Crude25:25 - Trendlines & Closes26:54 - Natural Gas Futures28:46 - Bitcoin Volatility31:39 - Trading Tip33:40 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comWebsite: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/ Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested. After building his wealth through trading in 2004,
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Bix Weir, and Steve St. Angelo for a lively and professional debate around metals manipulation and mining. Bix believes there is a large amount of gold in the Grand Canyon region, while Steve believes it's uneconomic to mine both logistically and due to energy costs. The conversation focuses on Charles Spencer and his attempts to mine gold in the area in the early 1900s, and how his efforts failed due to the fineness of the gold and the lack of a profitable return. They also discussed the New York Times article from 1912, which Steve speculated was an attempt to get more investors to invest in the mining operation even though it had been shut down. The conversation then turned to the KISS principle, with Steve discussing the energy return on investment of oil, and how it has been steadily falling since its peak in 1970. This has caused a variety of issues, such as inflation, and Steve believes that it is more important to focus on energy than to get lost in the details of the manipulation theory. Louis McFadden, the chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency from 1920 to 1932, was then discussed, with Bix believing that he wanted to fix the problem of mines being uneconomical by introducing a tax of fifty percent. This was intended to give the miners a premium and encourage more gold production. Steve looked at the issue from an energy perspective, stating that the real problem is not the manipulation of the gold and silver price, but the lack of available energy and the way in which it has been siphoned away from poorer countries to the more developed nations. The two experts then discussed gold and silver as money. Steve argues a lot of this money has been lost throughout time. Bix also spoke of the fixing of the price of gold at $20.67 in the US in 1900, which the banks knew would cause a lot of mines to fail due to the increasing costs. Finally, Bix and Steve discussed institutional investors and their lack of understanding for investing in silver and gold, and how the US Mint is required by law to produce coins in quantities equal to demand, yet they are only producing a third of what they are capable of. They attributed this to the new Mint director, Ventress Gibson, who has never been in charge of the Mint before and is an HR professional. They believe that something bigger is going on and that the US Mint is holding back coins from the public. They agree that gold and silver prices have been manipulated by large banks and the US government, but they disagree on the role of energy in the pricing. They also discuss the KISS principle, the energy cliff due to declining oil production, the Comex, and the US Mint's apparent lack of increased production of silver eagles. They emphasize the importance of energy, saying that it always comes first and is the foundation of the economy and all that we do. Lastly, they agree that silver will outperform gold in the coming years. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introductions4:47 - Grand Canyon Gold?21:30 - 1900 Gold Supply33:54 - Gold Price Fixing36:57 - Taxes on Gold41:18 - Counterarguments50:00 - Gold Manipulation Chart1:00:10 - Derivative Impacts1:01:43 - Today's Production Costs1:06:05 - Supply/Demand & Price1:09:55 - Mining & Energy Use1:15:25 - 1980 Highs & Benchmarks1:25:40 - High Frequency Trading1:27:10 - Reserve Disparities1:29:34 - Silver Eagles & Supply1:39:12 - Energy & Fairy Tales1:45:22 - Energy & Crypto Mining1:46:54 - COMEX, Hedging, & ETFs1:57:22 - Revaluation & Metals?2:03:24 - Shale & Energy Sunset2:06:20 - Silver Lining Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Bix believes that there is a large amount of gold in the area near the Grand Canyon and that freely traded gold would be easier to mine.They discuss the EROI of oil, and how it has been steadily falling since its peak in 1970.They discuss the importance of holding silver while Steve stresses the importance of energy production in the future economy.
Tom welcomes Julian Brigden to the show. Julian is Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners. Julian discusses the Feds options, including "Opportunistic Disinflation" to drain the inflation from the system. He believes it will take years to correct inflation and will likely be a painful process. The issues are not so much inflation, but nominal GDP. Most of GDP is based on the labor market and consumer behavior. The Fed understands the situation very well and they expect higher unemployment. We don't know the exact approach the Fed is taking and if they are considering how inflation played out in the 1970s. The Fed today is very politicized and what happens towards the end of the year when we have higher unemployment and are heading into an election cycle. He says, "We're now fighting a kinetic war with Russia, a Cold War with China, and a war with climate change. Arguably, the dynamics today are far worse than in the 70s." The Fed will have to decide just how independent of the government it is. The Fed is trying to steer the supertanker, while most investors can change course much faster. Mortgage applications have just dropped to the lowest levels since 1995. We're seeing higher than normal cancellations in the home markets. We're heading for a good old boom, bust market cycle in the sector. The ECB is miles away from viable rates, arguably, as they are currently minus 300 basis points in real terms. We're in uncharted territory, and he discusses the German bond situation. All these sovereign bonds are basically interchangeable, so they all affect each other. A weaker dollar would be very supportive for gold and especially silver. He explains the differences between the silver and gold market. Silver tends to outperform in inflationary environments. We're in a structural bond bear market, be disciplined because passive investing will be heavily punished going forward. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Rates & Feds Approach8:43 - Nominal GDP Issues11:14 - Inflation Today Vs 70s17:19 - Fed Reactionary19:50 - Housing Markets25:50 - Europe/ECB Impacts33:54 - BRICS & Reserve Status37:13 - Yields & Gold39:57 - Gold/Silver Differences43:31 - China & Deglobalization46:55 - Trading Cautiously48:39 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed is very politicized and this could have a major effect on how they approach inflation.Mortgages applications are at their lowest level since 1995, indicating a possible coming bust cycle in the housing market.Yields are at historic lows and silver is especially likely to perform well in an inflationary environment. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Website: https://mi2partners.com/Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/ Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales. Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade. When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive. As a result, the economy has closed the output gap and is in danger of overheating.
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to discuss the current markets and his outlook for the year. Tony expects further inflation, particularly from energy with the green transition. Markets are chaotic at the moment, much of which has to do with the yield curve – currently steeper than during the Great Financial Crisis and the Dot Com Bubble. It is important to watch what rates and the dollar are doing to understand how aggressive one can be with one's trades. He explains the bond markets' impact on the rest of the financial markets, and the current inversion signalling of a recession ahead. He is bullish on oil and refineries, believing the downside on energy is limited and oil-related companies have good upside. Tony gives his thoughts on gold, natural gas and why we've had a pullback in price, and why he believes energy and natural resources will be the outperformers this year, while tech will move sideways or down. Technology had a huge rally over the past couple of years, so a correction was overdue. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Setup for 20237:45 - Yield Curve Importance11:40 - Inflation & Commodities13:20 - Energy & Risks19:20 - WTI & Breakeven Price21:24 - Dollar Trends25:04 - Long Gold?29:06 - Natural Gas Trends34:25 - Carbon & Commodities37:20 - Nuclear & Public Opinion39:45 - Resource Companies43:18 - Rates & Tech Sector45:47 - CFTC & COT Reports48:46 - Events & Bigger Themes52:12 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode The yield curve is currently inverted steeper than during past financial crises which could be a signal for a coming recession.Tony is bullish on oil and refineries and believes gold is a good risk mitigating investment this year.Why energy and natural resources will probably outperform this year.Tech sector is likely to churn sideways. Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.org After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years." We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets. He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs. He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience. He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC. h7mkkfd8
Tom welcomes the well-known Michael Maloney to the show. Mike discusses the outstanding professionals he works with to create Hidden Secrets of Money, which has done very well on YouTube, with the fourth episode having reached ten million views. He details how modern banks simply imagine money into existence with loans. Mike discusses the important distinctions between currency and money. Currency cannot store value over long periods of time, whereas honest money, like gold and silver, maintains its purchasing power. For the last 5,000 years, the predominant medium of exchange has been precious metals. The period of the 1970s was the biggest bull market for honest money, and we are overdue for a similar period. Currencies are constantly devalued by creating more units of them, which is inflation, and they make poor measurement tools for value. Various asset classes move in long-term cycles, and we're approaching another bull period for gold and silver; we've been stuck in a difficult mid-cycle correction since 2011. The Federal Reserve creates currency when they decide to purchase an asset. However, they are only allowed to buy in the open market; this was supposed to create price competition. Their open market, however, is different than the public's. They use the primary dealer investment banks and brokerage houses around the world. These are not banks in a conventional sense. He discusses the concept of currency units per person, and the idea that currency has to end up somewhere and inflate some asset class. Low interest rates create more currency due to the increased uptake in loans. This, coupled with direct stimulus, means someone has to repay this new money eventually. It used to be possible to borrow and increase GDP, but this is increasingly difficult today. This was back when real businesses were being built, but as a society, we've increasingly gone into debt. We've reached the point of no return where we can't borrow ourselves into prosperity. Central banks are increasingly buying gold, particularly the eastern banks in China, India, and Russia. Mike discusses recent changes in gold buying by the United States during the pandemic and how the U.S. has now returned to being a net seller of metals. Whenever the middle-class becomes impoverished, we see political risk. Gold and silver is the only thing you can buy that doesn't entail counterparty risk. If you don't already have metals as insurance, you may find it impossible to obtain in a crisis. He explains why a lot of money is going to chase after gold and silver during the next bull market. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:43 - Banks & Money Creation5:17 - Currency Vs. Money10:35 - Price Vs. Value16:22 - Money Printing & Theft23:43 - Bernanke & Responsibility31:22 - Treasury Remittances35:55 - Doppelganger Dollars47:12 - Gold & Silver - New Book49:05 - Reverse Robinhood49:57 - Socialism & Division54:50 - Almost Everything Bubble59:00 - Excessive Taxation59:56 - Currency Units & Inflation1:04:30 - Budgets, Taxes, & Crisis1:09:05 - Solutions & Smart Money1:14:40 - Gold in a Crisis1:26:40 - More Book Details1:28:20 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Modern banks can imagine currency into existence with loans, but it cannot store value over long periods of time, whereas honest money like gold and silver maintains its purchasing power.The Federal Reserve creates currency when they purchase assets, but this new money must eventually be repaid.Gold and silver is the only thing you can buy that doesn't entail counterparty risk, and it is expected that a lot of money will chase after it during the next bull market. Guest Links:Website: https://goldsilver.com/Book: https://ggsr21.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/goldsilver_comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Goldsilver Our team is lead by Mike Maloney, the founder of GoldSilver, host of Hidden Secrets of Money, former Rich Dad/Poor Dad advisor,
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle has a new offering on the Substack she recently started. Tom and Danielle discuss the recently released Fed Minutes and the potential implications for the US economy. DiMartino Booth stated that the minutes were massaged in order to correct any market misperceptions that the Fed was going to pause its tight monetary policy. She also points out that jobs were not mentioned in the minutes, even though bankruptcies and job losses are on the rise, and that consumer credit card debt had jumped to an all-time high. DiMartino Booth argues that the Fed was trying to hide behind specious inflation and jobs data in order to keep up its tight policy stance, and she notes that income tax refunds were down 14% year-over-year. They also discussed the debt limit issue, which DiMartino Booth describes as kabuki theater, but argued that it should still be a topic of discussion in order to address entitlement spending. Lastly, DiMartino Booth discusses the recent nomination of Austin Goolsbee to the Chicago Fed and the White House's subsequent appointment of two more candidates after the leaked voting result against Goolsbee. This, she argued, was a victory for the hawks on the Fed and a loss for the White House. She also highlighted the recalculation of CPI, which she believes will help the Fed when it eventually eases its policy. Danielle discusse the Fed's minutes from the last meeting which just came out. What is interesting is what is missing from the notes, namely labor and disinflation. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Minutes Review2:16 - Labor, Debt & Bankruptcies7:23 - Monetary Policy Lag10:30 - Financial Conditions?12:04 - Debt Limit Theatrics?15:26 - Feds Path Forward18:50 - CPI Adjustments20:16 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Review of the Fed's minutes from their last meeting and what was missing.Fed acknowledging the lag time of policy decisions to effect and seasonal CPI adjustments.U.S. debt ceiling limits and why it's entirely theater. Guest Links:Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette,
Tom welcomes back the Head Writer from the Little Green Chicken consulting firm AKA Doomberg. Doomberg discusses the consequences and risks of the probable U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline, arguing that it's likely an impeachable offense and such actions set a bad precedent geopolitically. He notes that the media would likely not be ignoring the news had Trump taken similar measures. He then addresses the use of Substack, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses. He expresses the importance of staying professional, stating that the traditional media's hatred of Substack may be indicative of its importance. Next, he talks about the tradeoffs between shipping petrochemicals via rail and allowing pipelines, which are cheaper and safer. He acknowledges that no mode of transportation is without risk, and that the media has become adept at using propaganda when it comes to energy. He then reflects on California, a beautiful and prosperous land that encourages progressive thinking, although its ideas around energy are largely incorrect. He expresses his disagreement with the idea of preventing others from climbing the affluence ladder, which requires energy. He then discusses home energy and efficiency, noting that there is currently a push for heat pump systems. He highlights the added complexity and cost, as well as the fact that they don't work well in extremely cold temperatures. One needs an extremely reliable grid for such systems. He argues that if we had more nuclear and very stable grids, there would be benefits, but warns of the dangers if one's home loses heating. Doomy explains the importance of base load power and the problems with high-intermittency systems like wind or solar. He acknowledges that grid scale battery solutions are difficult to achieve and that we lack the will to develop sufficient mining to gather the necessary metals to realize these ideas. He then looks at Diablo Canyon, the last nuclear plant in California, which recently has been extended to stabilize the grid. However, he claims that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have done their best to suppress most existing and all new projects, stating that they are completely captured by the environmental movement. He suggests that some problems are too big to fix and just need to be eliminated. Lastly, Doomy provides his outlook on the crypto market, expressing his concerns around FTX and Tether. He emphasizes the hindrance and surveillance of the conventional financial system, and worries that Central Bank digital currencies will only exacerbate that control mechanism. Talking Points From This Episode The alleged U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline may set a dangerous geopolitical precedent.The importance of alternative journalism platforms like Substack.Green energy goals and concerns regarding electrically dependent Heat pump systems in areas with poor electric grids.Why the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is completely captured by the environmental movement.Central Bank digital currencies will further hinder and surveil. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Nordstream & America4:28 - Putin Apoligist & Media12:14 - Journalism & Substack18:40 - Pipelines Vs. Rail26:27 - California & Energy30:14 - Heat Pumps & Home Energy35:32 - Thar She Doesn't Blow39:53 - Grid Scale Solutions?44:33 - Diablo Canyon & NRC50:27 - Emissions & Green Agendas56:45 - Crypto Regulations?59:40 - Tether & Dollars1:03:22 - Banking Privacy & Control1:07:03 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom welcomes back Jeffrey Christian Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeffrey is an expert on the gold and silver markets. Jeff explains that in 2000, they issued a buy recommendation on gold at around $285, due to the political and economic environment that was going to last for decades. He then outlines the different drivers for gold and silver in different market environments, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio. He examines the idea that China holds 40,000 tons of gold in its reserves, and why China does not want to have the reserve currency of the world. Mr. Christian also explains why the mining industry has a lower beta compared to the price of the underlying metal. He states that due to a lack of investor interest in the sector, along with the rise of stock index funds and ETFs, institutional investors have been cutting costs and reducing their involvement in individual stock trading. This has caused a contraction in the stock market, reducing the buy side's ability to support research. He also explains the red, green, blue bubble chart that takes into account many different factors that CPM puts together, as well as the potential for hydrogen engines in the future and the importance of specialty metals, such as tantalum, in the electronics industry. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Commodity Research5:24 - Factors Driving Metals10:07 - Gold & Silver Differences11:44 - An Optimal Portfolio14:03 - Bad Data & Conjecture?20:09 - Gold & China24:56 - Gold Reserves & Sources36:15 - China & Reserve Currency39:00 - BRICS Effects & Dollars44:40 - Mining Equities & Beta49:30 - Inflation & the Media55:18 - CPM Recession Outlook57:37 - CPM RGB Bubble Chart59:01 - A Year of Transition1:02:27 - Metals & Energy Scenarios1:05:10 - Fossil Fuel Future1:07:16 - Platinum & ICE's1:10:14 - Tantalum Uses & Supply1:12:36 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The drivers of gold and silver in the commodities market, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio.The asymmetry of the gold and silver markets, and how bad data and misinformation can lead to incorrect decisions.China's gold industry and why they don't want to be the reserve currency of the world.Uses for the specialty metal tantalum and the importance of Australia becoming clean source of the metal. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: email@example.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith explains the two main forces that led to the price of gold remaining flat in 2022: the Fed’s decision to raise rates and the wild card of Ukraine. He explains that wage earners tend to prefer silver to gold, and that the Fed’s decision to raise rates has only recently started to have an effect on labor. Keith discusses the trend of falling interest rates over the last 40 years and how this has both unleashed capital and created an addiction to lower rates. This, he compared to a wrecking ball swinging back and forth and how the falling trend has caused companies to consume capital and become addicted to the trend. Keith suggests the Fed’s only concern is consumer prices, then lower rates may be a better way to stimulate production and lower prices. However, he cautions that lower rates can be destructive and that the continual lowering of rates and production could lead to higher prices eventually. He also discusses other effects such as zero interest rates driving investors to riskier asset classes and how speculators can have a big impact on the price of gold and silver. Ultimately, Keith believes that the bear market in gold is over and that the opportunity cost of owning gold may still be attractive to some. When the Fed reverses, there will be a surge in gold buying, not just from speculators but from those who are questioning the government’s debt levels. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Monetary Metals Report9:23 - Rate Trends18:18 - CPI & Hiking Rates23:50 - Politics & Consequences28:20 - Junk Bond Spreads29:37 - Defining Recessions35:46 - Labor Markets & Fed39:00 - Zero Yields & Risk42:56 - Scarcity, Price & Metals47:36 - Speculators & Futures51:33 - Energy Risks & Metals56:13 - Gold Prices in 20231:02:32 - Education & Economics1:04:31 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Impact of geopolitical effects in Europe and Ukraine along with Fed policy on the price of gold.Negative effect of Fed policies on the economy and concerns around politics.Speculators impact on gold prices and why Monetary Metals Model attempts to remove those effects.When the Fed reverses, a surge in gold buying is possible due to people questioning the government's debt. Guest Links:Gold Report: https://buff.ly/3lHl2ajTwitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01Website: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5 Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price. Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this. Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence. Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics. Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Tom welcomes Bob Elliot to the show he is CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds. Bob Elliot discussed the current economic situation, the role of debt cycles, and the trade-offs between a fiat monetary system and a commodity-based system. He noted that productivity is the main driver of growth over the long term, and that debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity. He explained the risks associated with governments borrowing to make up for productivity declines and noted that wage growth is maintaining nominal spending at a higher level. Bob also discussed the Great Depression and Japan's deflationary trap, arguing that the US has been more successful in responding to deflationary forces due to their policy mix. He also argued that the Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting what will happen and mentioned gold as a great diversifying asset to protect against tail risks. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - Our Economic State4:01 - Demographics & Labor11:14 - Wage Growth & Inflation16:38 - Limits to Debt Growth23:08 - Destabilizing Effects?27:20 - Recessions & Deleveraging31:03 - Great Depression Response35:30 - Japanese Debt Levels40:04 - U.S. Immigration & GDP43:43 - Perpetual Growth?46:27 - Fed Policy & Response49:34 - Hiking Cycle & Effects52:40 - Risk & Open Mindedness56:07 - Gold & Going Defensive59:04 - Wrap Up Talking Points from This Episode Productivity is the main driver of long-term growth, but current GDP numbers are low.Debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity and support asset prices.Trade-offs between fiat monetary system and commodity-based system.Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting outcomes. Guest Links:Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedCourse Article: https://t.co/Yc6ZBXaEJ8 Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio's personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He's the author of hundreds of Bridgewater's widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world's foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues. Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company's $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso is predicting a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year. He bases this prediction on three indicators - the frozen housing market, the Fed’s attempt to engineer tighter financial conditions, and the reaction of central banks to inflation. He also talks about immaculate disinflation, which is an environment where inflation comes down rapidly without a recession. The market is pricing this, which means people are selling insurance trades like the dollar, volatility, and cash, and buying high-beta stocks. Alfonso disagrees with this take and believes a recession is still more likely than a soft landing. He notes that the stock market usually bottoms before earnings bottom, and that valuations start to rise as the Fed cuts rates. He believes that a true bull market won't be seen until 2024, and that people should be wary of trying to anticipate the Fed's pivot. He also notes that the bond market underpins everything in the current financialized economy. The amount of debt between private and public sectors is 300-400% of GDP and bond yields are the price of the cost of borrowing. An inverted yield curve has hardly ever mis-forecasted a recession, and he cautions against believing that “this time is different”. Finally, he talks about net liquidity decreasing due to the Fed running off its balance sheet. The Treasury General Account is taking the hit instead of reserves, but once the debt ceiling debate is resolved, the Treasury General Account will need to be replenished. This will cause a double whammy effect on liquidity between June and December, with quantitative tightening running on the background. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve’s running off its balance sheet removes liquidity from the system. Alfonso also talks about how to avoid getting stuck in a narrative and what data should be paid attention to. He recommends self-awareness, training oneself to not think that one knows everything, and building a macro process and data-driven macro process. He advises looking for episodes of extreme market conviction, as it allows one to understand when things are getting stretched and when people are assigning too much conviction. He also encourages people to become active macro investors, as this is a much more complicated investing landscape than before. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Alfonso predicts a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year, based on three indicators.The market is pricing in a soft landing but more likely a true bull market won't be seen until 2024.He advises looking for market conviction, examining the macro environment, and develop market self-awareness in order to understand the complex financial landscape. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Base Case For Markets4:30 - Immaculate Disinflation7:44 - Recession Insurance9:53 - Expectations & FOMO19:12 - FED Timing & Pivots21:55 - Macro & Bond Markets25:29 - Yield Curve Inversion29:38 - Fed Balance Sheet35:05 - Narratives & Data39:40 - Risks & Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfSubstack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com Alfonso Peccatiello is the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools and portfolio strategy. The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy. Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron. He discusses his new analysis that he recently discussed at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. He discusses the history of gold and miners over the past few years. We've seen a period of consolidation of the last couple of years, but that is shifting. In September, we didn't see a wash-out in the metals after a breakdown. Instead, we went above the 1650 level. Buyers started to move into the market, which was different behavior than what we have seen. The big picture is we have seen a false breakdown that doesn't carry through. Numerous shorts had to cover following that event. The key takeaway is a false breakdown is a signal for a move in the opposite direction. The big picture is this market should now be biased to the upside. He expects a good end to the year for gold. He believes the next rally towards the 2000 level will be successful. The first sign will be that the monthly close will prelude a breakout to new all-time highs. He provides some targets for where gold should reach. Chris discusses what is realistic for silver markets in the coming couple of years. Eventually, when we reach the $45 dollar level, investors may want to take some profits. It probably won't blast through it right away. He discusses some of the industrial demand factors for silver. He believes that inflation will plateau around the 4.5% range, and later it may rise higher. This is not what markets are expecting. Valuations for miners are quite low, and the price for reserves in the ground is quite low. We're looking at 5x to 10x lower valuations than ten years ago. He notes that sentiment remains quite low in the miners and metals. Only very prudent investors are moving into metals. He notes there are those who like to keep the population in a state of fear and concern. They like the state of perpetual war, and fiat currency is what permits this behavior. They want to keep people on the taxation and inflation treadmill. We need a system that prevents government from spending beyond its means. What is important to keep in mind is that society in many ways is progressing. Despite the bad things, there is a lot of potential, and it's important to keep space for possibility and optimism. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Analysis & Gold Outlook7:30 - Technicals & Resistance10:47 - Fundamental Issues14:10 - Measured Target16:12 - Silver Vs. Gold Mkts.24:42 - Dollar & Metals26:27 - Fed & Inflation30:12 - The Lag in Miners38:17 - Sovereign Opportunities41:54 - War, Gold, & Narratives48:51 - Taxes - Words & Numbers51:20 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Analysis of the gold and silver markets, plus price targets.Dollars impact on the metals and the effects of inflation.Taking personal responsibility and finding sovereign opportunities. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metal's investment portal Gold Eagle. A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s. Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit. Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
Tom Welcomes author and economist Phil Denniston. Phil discusses the inadequacies of his economics education and how economic problems around the year 2000 caused him to question it. The bursting of the housing bubble lead him to study and learn from a more rational school of economic thought. All the world's problems come back to the bubble-bust cycle and debt. Capitalism is a spectrum and our system has elements of free markets, but it's not truly free. We set the price of money, and price fix many markets. All of which create distortions. We have cronyism, where markets are controlled by interests of the highest bidder. The types of people we need in government aren't likely to want the job. A lot of economic activity occurs due to the price fixing of money. We blow up asset prices and create bubbles. This maintains zombie companies that shouldn't be around any longer. Capitalism requires failure, but that doesn't happen as often as it should. The result is stagnation and eventually recession or depression. Every dollar today is created as a loan. Debt is principal plus interest, and more dollars will be needed to repay it. We have to have endless growth within a finite world. A lot of conflict comes back to the money system. Our current system is the aberration, in normal economic times money is tied to something of value. Free markets always choose a backed system. Government intervention in the system can only make things worse. A return to the gold standard will never occur until they are forced into this solution. When things blow up, there will be only one way to restore confidence, which is a backed currency. Hopefully, we actually have the gold reserves the U.S. government claims. Collapse will bring short to medium term pain. Humans are herd animals, and we fear being cut-off from the rest of the tribe. It's important to train yourself to think differently and apart from the propaganda. Group think can be dangerous, and it's key to stand up for what you believe in. Focus on what you can control. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Economics Journey6:06 - Those In Charge9:40 - Fed Distortions13:42 - The Economic Endgame?17:56 - Inherent Flaws19:43 - Systems & Government27:15 - Realigning Incentives29:35 - Better Bedtime Stories34:29 - Madness of Crowds36:52 - Concluding Thoughts38:49 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The problems with the current fiat debt based financial system.Why control systems create asset bubbles and market distortions.Importance of commodity backed currency systems and the dangers of following the herd. Guest Links:Website: https://inflationeducation.netTwitter: https://twitter.com/inflationedu Phil Denniston is founder and CEO of InflationEducation.net, better bedtime stories revealing the secrets of the debt-based fiat money system using the principles of liberty, sound money, Austrian Economics, and Natural Law. Phil holds a BA in Economics from the University of Colorado. With InflationEducation.net, Phil married his two passions: Understanding what's behind the curtain in finance, markets, and geopolitics, and using that nightly ritual building memories with your children to teach them how the system really works. Phil is also a contributing author for PeakProsperity.com.
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders. David discusses Fed Chair Powell's recent statements, but argues that financial conditions have not tightened that much. Powell has said some real doozies recently, like the economy is strong, and the labor market is doing well. David says, "give me a break, the metrics around labor markets are startling wrong." Bernanke has stated in the past, "When the data is bad, you have to lie" because it's about maintaining confidence. The economy is not doing well, and neither is the labor market. The Fed statements are just justification for their policies. We're starting to see delinquencies and foreclosures that are likely to get considerably worse by next year. Housing and properties in parts of Canada have dropped forty percent. The CPI metrics for the Fed is part of their narrative construction. They are going to "redefine" the CPI lower because it reduces the cost of government entitlements. Year over year, inflation will come down, and they are going to recalculate it even lower. If we get lower inflation, the Fed will have justification to pause. He believes the DXY will head lower when this pop completes, once again near the recent highs. This will be the time to be buying gold and silver while many are throwing in the towel. The only way that doesn't play out is if we break below 1750 support. There is no scenario where gold and silver don't go up in the next few years. He is concerned there could be nationalization or excess taxation of miners. If you're able to get out, will you be able to find someplace safe to put your money? The markets are essentially rigged and managed by central banks. All the markets needed recently to go in the other direction was a catalyst. The Euro drop was the catalyst and caused the DXY to move higher, these are nearly perfectly correlated. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Financial Conditions2:28 - Labor Contradictions6:44 - Hikes & Latent Damage10:15 - Redefining the CPI14:43 - DXY & Gold Outlook18:48 - Final Fed Endgame23:27 - Mine Nationalization25:35 - The Metals Reversal?32:50 - Leading Indications35:14 - Fed Still Matters38:50 - Dedollarization42:44 - The Fed Trifecta48:06 - Entitlements53:23 - Wifey Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Fed policy is all about maintaining a narrative while manipulating statistics to support it.Outlook for the dollar and why he is so optimistic on precious metals.The move away from the dollar and why Fed policy still matters. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writersSilver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce. He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life. David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
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