Events of the past few weeks have cast doubt over the stability of the financial system. First Silicon Valley Bank and its troubled regional banking peers, then Credit Suisse. In typical fashion, the US Federal Reserve has stepped in to backstop the sector. In the case of Credit Suisse, UBS scooped it up for cents on the dollar. These events have changed the way corporations perceive risk, according to this week's guest on the The Rules of Investing John Ayoub, Portfolio Manager for the Wilson Asset Management's Leaders Fund (ASX: WLE). How does this play out for investors? Equity markets remain investable, according to Ayoub, but to do it right takes an approach that factors in the macro and micro. Which is good, because that's exactly the approach taken by the WAM Leaders Fund, which was launched by Ayoub and colleague Matthew Haupt. In today’s episode, we discuss: the global banking crisis, and how this risk affects the Australian market; the political risk investors are underestimating; the way WAM use macro, micro and catalysts to find their winners; and we also touch on what defensive quality means, and why it’s the play in the current market. Ayoub colours the conversation with a tonne of stocks, so there's sure to be something in here for everyone. Note: This episode was recorded on March 21, 2023. Timestamps 1:30 - Global banking crisis 3:20 - Moral hazard in equity markets 6:50 - Where do bank deposits go? 10:15 - The hole left by Credit Suisse 11:20 - Political risk is exploding 15:00 - Doubling down after big hits 17:00 - The companies that make it into WAM Leaders 22:45 - Finding opportunities in beaten-down sectors 25:30 - Spotting inflexion points in markets 30:00 - Hunting for defensive quality 34:00 - A big win and a big loss 36:30 - The death of the office is overblown

Events of the past few weeks have cast doubt over the stability of the financial system. First Silicon Valley Bank and its troubled regional banking peers, then Credit Suisse. In typical fashion, the US Federal Reserve has stepped in to backstop the sector. These events have changed the way corporations perceive risk, according to this week's guest on the The Rules of Investing John Ayoub, Portfolio Manager for the Wilson Asset Management's Leaders Fund (ASX: WLE). In the upcoming episode, we discuss: the global banking crisis, and how this risk affects the Australian market; the political risk investors are underestimating; the way WAM use macro, micro and catalysts to find their winners; and we also touch on what defensive quality means, and why it’s the play in the current market. Ayoub colours the conversation with a tonne of stocks, so there's sure to be something in here for everyone.

On this week's episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's David Thornton sits down with Alan Kohler AM, one of the country's preeminent business journalists. Alan first cut his teeth in 1969 as a cadet at The Australian. From 1985 and 1988 he served as editor of the Australian Financial Review, and was editor of The Age from 1992-1995. In 2007, together with Robert Gottliebsen and Stephen Bartholomeusz, Alan founded Australian Independent Business Media, publisher of Business Spectator and Eureka Report. In 2016, after selling the business to News Corp, Alan founded The Constant Investor, which was sold on to Investsmart. In a case of full circle, Alan now once again writes for the Eureka report. He also pens a regular column for The New Daily, hosts The Money Café (with Alan Kohler), and you’ll still find him in your living room reading the finance on the ABC. In today’s episode, Alan why the RBA has become too hawkish (and the consequences of it being so), the overhaul needed at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and his views on funds management. Note: This episode was recorded on March 7, 2023. Timestamps 2:34 - It's all in the hands of the RBA 5:00 - Elevated inflation isn't ideal, but it's ok 5:30 - All roads lead to the inflation target 8:30 - Renovating the central bank 12:20 - What is guidance, anyway? 15:30 - Should Parliament carry its weight? 19:30 - What is priced into equity markets? 21:35 - What to look for in an actively managed fund 23:35 - What is a reasonable net return from a balanced fund? 24:50 - The role of ETFs in the portfolio

On this week's episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's David Thornton sits down with Alan Kohler AM, one of the country's preeminent business journalists. In the upcoming episode, we discuss the one thing that will tip markets into recession (or won't), the overhaul needed at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and his views on funds management.

The Smorgon family is one of Australia’s great wealth building stories. The family emigrated from Ukraine in 1927, opening a Kosher Butcher shop in Carlton soon after. Through the 1930s, the family expanded into wholesale meat and canning industries and, by the time the decade was up, were exporting meat and canned fruit goods to the United Kingdom. Victor Smorgon AC and the family established Smorgon Consolidated Industries in 1942, and this is when things really started to take off. In the 50s, the family added paper and packaging businesses to their repertoire, while the 80s saw the addition of a glass and plastic packaging company. But it was the Steel industry where the Smorgon family displayed its appetite and aptitude for disruption, with Smorgon Steel going on to become the country’s largest vertically integrated producer of steel and steel products. In 1995, with a heavy heart, Victor and the family divested Smorgon Consolidated Industries. In its place came Victor Smorgon Group, which is today one of Australia's premier family offices. In today's episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's David Thornton sits down with Peter Edwards – the late Victor’s grandson and CEO of Victor Smorgon Group. We discuss: The Smorgon family’s flair for disruption The way a family office invests, and The multi strat fund that has recently opened its doors to outside money.

Today’s guest on The Rules of Investing will be very familiar to subscribers of Livewire. Christopher Joye co-founded Coolabah Capital in 2011, and it's since grown to house about $7 billion in funds under management. Coolabah is a leading active credit alpha manager, with 28 portfolios across institutional and retail mandates. Chris has storied history analysing Australia’s property market. In 2008, when the world was in the throes of the GFC, the Australian Government ploughed $15 billion into a policy proposal developed by Chris to provide liquidity to the Australian residential mortgage backed securities market. He also founded research and investment group Rismark International. While there, he designed Australia’s first “quality-controlled” house price indices, the IP for which is used to this day by Corelogic. In today’s episode, we dive into the RBA’s latest rate decision, the dire outlook for Australia’s housing market, and how Coolabah generate returns by exploiting mispricing in the bond and cash markets. Along the way, you'll get a front row seat into the inner workings of an active bond fund. Chris also spins a yarn about the time he challenged GMO's Jeremy Grantham to put his money where his mouth is. Timestamps 2:30 - The RBA hikes rates to a 10 year high 6:00 - Pain on the way for the Aussie household 10:00 - A problem in the RBA's models 12:50 - Housing to fall by 30% 18:55 - Maintaining central bank credibility 22:00 - Zombie haunt the ASX 26:00 - Wait for the risk-free rate to do its work 27:26 - Challenging GMOs Jeremy Grantham 38:30 - How to short the housing market 31:30 - Hunting for mispriced bonds 38:00 - The inefficiency of the over-the-counter bond market 41:20 - How Coolabah builds its portfolios 46:00 - Navigating 2022 48:00 - Choose your hedges wisely 57:00 - How the NSW Government becomes a hedge fund 59:30 - The best value in bond and cash markets Note: this episode was recorded on February 8, 2023.

If there's one group of people who cop a lot of flak in financial markets, it's central bankers. Whether you believe they get too much or too little of it, they're the ones who print the money and make decisions that influence the wallets of billions of people. That was particularly true in 2022, as many on the economic spectrum were caught unawares by the surge in inflation (and its persistence thereafter). And depending on which central bank you most closely watch, they may also provide intentionally vague answers - or at least, avoid giving the direct and certain feedback you desire. A beautiful example of this stems from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In his post-decision press conference last week, Powell argued "certainty is not appropriate". In layman terms, he's simply saying that singular data prints are not Gospel, even if financial markets may see otherwise. Now, at this most crucial time in financial markets, EFG Bank Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach has granted us an exclusive interview about the state of the global economy and what central banks are doing as a result. Gerlach was the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland between 2011 and 2015. As part of this role, he also sat in on the meetings of the European Central Bank under its former President Mario Draghi. You can read an edited summary below: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-this-ex-central-banker-fears-a-second-and-even-bigger-mistake Timecodes: 1:00 - Why were central bankers caught so off guard by the inflation surge? 3:38 - Could central bankers have better forecast this mess? 4:51 - Did central banks react quickly and forcefully enough to avert a recession? 7:29 - Would you have handled things differently if you were still in your old role? 8:08 - What is the risk central banks will make a second big mistake? 11:17 - What advice would you give investors who want to understand central bank messaging better? 16:46 - Will the Eurozone avoid a deep recession? 18:42 - Will China’s reopening save Australia from the global recession? 20:12 - How has your asset allocation strategy changed? 23:47 - What’s one macro theme investors are not talking about enough?

We’ve got a slightly different episode for you today on The Rules of Investing. A departure from the norm! A lot has been said about the change from growth investing to value investing. This shift has been easy to see in aggregate. In 2022, the MSCI world growth index was down 29.05%, compared to just -6.5% for the MSCI Value index. But indices are just that - aggregates. They do little to explain the why behind the what. Why has this shift occurred? What signals should investors watch? How should we interpret these signals? And what traps lie in weight to catch out investors? In short - how does the stock market actually work? To answer these questions and more, we're joined by Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager on the Australian Equity Team at Lazard Asset Management. Phil's an expert in market bubbles - how they grow and, importantly, how they burst. So he's the perfect guest to break it all down. (He also happened to be the most popular ROI guest in 2022). Note: This episode was recorded on Monday January 30, 2023. Timestamps 3:20 – “The central bank always wins” 5:15 – The most striking US market change since last September 8:00 – Why 2023 will be a tough year, but less so for Australia 10:30 – Recessions are almost always unexpected – and what this means for investors 11:00 ­– Will the Fed’s slowing of rate hikes flow onto RBA 14:00 – The normalisation of equity valuations is only halfway through 17:00 – 80% of market volatility is driven by noise – only 20% by fundamentals 28:30 – The surprising reason Value always beats Growth 36:00 – Why migrations are so important for Value portfolios 39:00 – How Lazard ascribes value to companies 42:00 – A case study of James Hardie (ASX: JHX)

We’ve got a bit of a different episode for you today, which I think you’ll enjoy. A lot has been said about the change from growth investing to value investing. This shift has been easy to see in aggregate. In 2022, the MSCI world growth index was down 29.05%, compared to just -6.5% for the MSCI Value index. But why has this shift occurred? What signals are investors watching. How should we interpret these signals, and what traps lie in weight to catch out investors? To answer these questions and more, I’m joined by Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager on the Australian Equity Team at Lazard Asset Management.

Professional investors have been banging the quality drum with intensity since since the June sell-off. It makes a lot of sense. In today's market turbulence, the companies that will survive (and thrive) need strong balance sheets, consistent earnings and high return on capital. All the good stuff. But that alone doesn't make them good investments. Quality companies only make sense if you buy them at a good price. Today's episode of The Rules of Investing features a Livewire favourite: Steve Johnson, Chief Investment Officer and co-founder at Forager Funds. Forager started life in 2009 and now manages approximately $350 million across an Australian share fund and an unlisted international shares fund. Forager are on the hunt for undervalued and unloved companies, mainly in the small cap space, but they also invest in mids and large caps to add some liquidity to the portfolio when volatility spikes. Today we discuss lessons learned from 2022, the small cap cycle and earnings downgrades, and the one Aussie company with a market monopoly in the US. Note: This episode was recorded on Monday 16 January 2023. Timestamps 1:10 - Lessons learned from 2022 2:30 - The right time to sell 3:40 - Preserving capital 5:00 - Managing risk through weightings 6:30 - Managing investor expectations 8:40 - Inflation, rates and the Aussie consumer 13:00 - Earnings downgrades and small caps 16:00 - Are quality companies crowded? 21:20 - Forager's shopping list 33:00 - Forget about picking the bottom 35:00 - Biggest wins, deepest losses 39:00 - The Big Tech stock for the bottom drawer

In the upcoming episode of The Rules of Investing, we're joined by Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Funds. Forager began life in 2009 as a compliment fund to the highly successful market newsletter The Intelligent Investor, and has grown to manage about $350 million across a listed Australian shares fund and an unlisted international shares fund. Forager look for undervalued and unloved companies, and Steve has come to the table with plenty of companies that fit the bill. Here's a preview of what you can expect.

The Rules of Investing is done for another year. But fear not! For those looking for some summer listening we’ve got a fresh Series of Success and More Interesting Stuff going live right now. Search for Success and More Interesting Stuff on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean.

When volatility strikes, investors invariably become more reflexive and less disciplined. But investing with reckless abandon is almost certainly going to lead to bad outcomes. Experienced investors stick to the game plan - a game plan borne of experience and a process that's been tried and tested through the full business cycle. On today’s episode of The Rules of Investing, David Thornton sits down with Matt Williams from Airlie Funds Management. Matt cut his teeth in 1993 when he joined Perpetual Investments as an equities dealer. That was followed by 17 years at Perpetual, working alongside heavy hitters including Anton Tagliaferro, Peter Morgan, and John Sevior. There he held the role of head of equities from 2011 to 2015. He joined Airlie in 2016, with a remit that includes Australian share strategies for institutional clients and the Airlie Australian Share Fund for retail clients. This year, Matt was recognised as one of the best in the business and inducted into the Hall of Fame, joining a small and distinguished list of Australia’s best fundies (including the three Perpetual alumni mentioned above). Matt explains why the Aussie market has fared better than its global peers, where valuations are and where they're going, and the one Aussie company Matt reckons is made for Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. Note: this episode was recorded on Thursday December 13, 2022. Timestamps 1:40 - Leaning from mentors, past and present 3:15 - It's not only what you own, it's what you avoid 5:00 - Why the Aussie market has outperformed global peers 8:00 - Cash is king 14:00 - Stress testing companies 18:30 - Defensive anchors 20:00 - Getting in early with Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) 22:00 - Upgrade the quality when the market falls 23:00 - Buying blips 28:04 - A business made for Buffett

In tomorrow's episode of The Rules of Investing, I sit down with Hall of Famer Matt Williams - a portfolio manager at Airlie Funds Management. Matt runs Airlie's Aussie share fund. We cover a lot of ground, including the way he views today's market, where Airlie's deploying capital, and the one company born to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio.

Growth investing has ruled the roost for the last decade. If you wanted astronomical gains, Big Tech was the train you needed to be on. Didn't matter which carriage, they were all coupled together. But that all went belly up this year, with the growth-focused Nasdaq losing roughly a third of its value thanks to inflation, rates and slowing output. If 2022 has taught us anything, it's that a regime change in markets has arrived with a bang. In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's David Thornton sits down with Sam Ruiz, a Portfolio Specialist in the Equity Division at T. Rowe Price. Sam hasn't lost any enthusiasm for growth investing. Instead, he acknowledges that the rulebook that worked so well through the 2010s should be put back on the shelf. Among many other key insights, Sam believes that the choice between growth and value is not the binary choice many make it out to be. The growth stocks that will excel in this market, and there are many, will share many many attributes with their value-focused cousins. Topics discussed include the muscle memory plaguing markets, the changing face of growth, and the importance of capital. He also goes deep on a widely dismissed traditional sector that he believed could grow 2x in the coming years! Note: this episode was recorded on Monday November 28, 2022. Timestamps 1:30 - Will the multiple mindset continue? 4:30 - Dark days for speculative growth 5:55 - Prices follow returns and narratives follow price 8:20 - Pitfalls of total addressable market 10:10 - Growth companies fed off multiples 16:30 - Dispersions = opportunities 18:40 - Don't count out cyclicals 21:20 - False dichotomy of growth vs value 22:15 - Importance of cash balances 28:00 - Hunting for idiosyncratic companies 29:00 - Opportunities in emerging markets 23:40 - A contrarian view on a dismissed sector 32:00 - Fight for money has changed the game 33:40 - A Big Tech stock worth its weight 36:30 - A Brazilian bank for the bottom drawer

How the mighty have fallen. Large cap growth is on the nose. The NASDAQ composite is down roughly 30% this year, and it may have some way to go yet. But growth investing as a style isn’t going anywhere. Rather, it will need to adapt to the times. In the upcoming episode of The Rules of Investing, we’re joined Sam Ruiz, a portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price. Sam is on the team running the global equity fund. While they still maintain some exposure in the kinds of big growth stocks the market has sold off, their views of the growth market, and the way they pick their winners, is tailored for today’s new market paradigm. Here’s a preview of what you can expect.

It’s been a crazy year for virtually every asset class. Commodities have been particularly interesting, though, because earlier this year, when most everything was selling off, commodities went on a bull run! It’s a highly volatile sector, exposed to just about every macroeconomic variable there is, so investing in it takes a unique skill set. But as you'll learn, it's a first-order beneficiary of the big trends that will define markets over the coming decades. And that means massive returns. In today's episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's David Thornton is joined by Luke Smith from Ausbil Investment Management. Luke runs Ausbil’s Global Resources Fund. The fund invests in natural resources companies using a top down and bottom up approach. It also goes short to help manage risk. Luke explains why he's so bullish on battery metals, how the decarbonisation supercycle will pull commodities along for the ride, the mismatch between the nearish micro narrative surrounding China and what he's seeing at the micro level, and how he finds companies with relative value. Note: this episode was recorded on Thursday November 11, 2022. Timestamps 1:20 - Ausbil Global Resources Fund 4:10 - High demand, low supply in battery metals 9:30 - Falling demand in the West, accelerating demand in the East 10:15 - Macro fears distracting from micro strength 11:50 - Positioning through the commodities bull market 12:40 - Lacking investment in new supply 13:30 - Lithium spodumene price goes 25x 16:00 - Lithium, Cobalt and Copper are key for electrification 18:30 - Energy was on a tear before Russia-Ukraine 19:00 - Don't write off fossil fuels 20:50 - Separating signals from noise 24:00 - Don't be negative in a negative market 30:00 - Don't equate Aussie EV penetration with demand for electrification 32:00 - As relative value shifts, so should your exposures 37:00 - Commodities fundamentals are stronger than the macro narrative 41:08 - Betting against the market in 2020 43:10 - A Decarb stock for the bottom drawer

It’s been a crazy year for virtually every asset class. Commodities have been particularly interesting, though, because earlier this year, when just about everything was selling off, commodities went on a bull run. It’s a highly volatile sector, exposed to just about every macroeconomic variable, so investing in it takes a unique skill set. In tomorrow's episode of the Rules of Investing, I sit down with Luke Smith from Ausbil Investment Management. Luke runs Ausbil’s global resources fund. We cover: - how he's investing in the energy transition; - the long-term macro anchors he employs to deal with short-term volatility; - and he also takes us through a sector set for 10x growth over the next ten years.

When I ask most fund managers about today's operating environment, they almost invariably respond with words like 'difficult', 'complex', or 'bearish'. And you can't blame them. The age of cheap money and growth at any cost is over. They're not defeatist, by any means, but it's safe to say they've had easier days at the office. So it was a breath of fresh air to sit down with Bob Desmond from Claremont Global to record this latest episode of The Rules of Investing. Bob's optimistic, and he's "finding value everywhere." Claremont Global run a high conviction global fund of just 10-15 stocks. Being that concentrated would send shivers down the spine of many investors at a time like this. But while it's true that diversification is the only free lunch in finance, it's also no coincidence that the vast majority of the world's top investors pass on the free lunch and choose to be concentrated. Bob takes comfort in knowing a few companies well. You could say that the quality growth companies Bob invests in are made for the moment. That is to say - indispensable large cap companies with lots of cash and big moats. In today's episode we cover the kind of big tech stocks Bob likes, the stock he's just bought after waiting years for the right price, how he manages investor expectations during a bear market, and much more! Note: this episode was recorded on Monday October 10, 2022.

Last week, London-based economist and founder of Longview Economics Chris Watling walked into a pub and ordered three pints of beer. The barman poured the pints and promptly asked Watling for £30. There was a pause, as the two made eye contact before eventually acknowledging the extreme prices for beer. But it's not just beer and bars that are going through a rough time. The other B - the Bank of England - is in a policy tussle with the new UK government, and that's led traders to question the economic credibility of the country. In this special edition of The Rules of Investing, Watling sits down with Livewire's Hans Lee for a discussion on the state of the UK, his current global market strategy, and what he feels are the next big risks on the horizon. We also dig deep into the changes he's made to Longview's model portfolios - and there are many to get through.