Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:54) - Global Ice Trade (03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies (18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models (33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange (34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet (35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes (37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus (48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape (58:20) - China's Global Investments (59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics -- Referenced in the Show: Link to application for Club CI:  https://bit.ly/club-ci -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:33) - Japan 101 (08:07) – Japanese disaffection (16:26) – Japanese paralysis (19:17) – Zoom out (23:31) – China (31:00) – ROK/Japan (36:45) – Shinzo Abe -- Referenced in the Show: Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105 -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:16) – Rob reaction (07:45) – Market reaction (30:20) – U.S./China (54:00) – Bitcoin (56:15) – Germany and Europe -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump’s agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States. -- Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan? 15:25 – Domestic agenda 40:40 – US-China Relations 1:03:40 – Mexico 1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU 1:27:51 – MENA/Iran 1:40:25 – Future of the USA -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Description (replace me) -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America 08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges 19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking 22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained 31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk 44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift 45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook 56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts -- Referenced in the Show: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/ https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. -- Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications 04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions 10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics 15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections 26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory 28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation 30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets 33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities 36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America 37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies 41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies 46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility 50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook 56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani 00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline 00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception 04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality 02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias 14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization 11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception 42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World -- Referenced in the Show: Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community. -- Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:56 - What is Club CI? 03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group 09:14 - Building the CI Community 10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends 21:37 - The Vision for Club CI 22:09 - The Structure of Club CI 29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained 55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 2023 03:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade 09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency 29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries 29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future 51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges 01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context 09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains 39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights 53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings 54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position 07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy 38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy 48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Introductory Remarks 00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel 01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals 02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation 03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities 34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift? 01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios 01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict 01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions 01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:14) - Who was Fujimori (09:37) – Japan and Peru (14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori (28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos (35:45) – Post-Fujimori (40:06)- Fujimori Legacy (49:45) – Thank you but you’re a f’ing dictator. -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA 28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil 30:00 – China -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:22) - Paulo’s view (13:05) – US elections (19:32) – Oil (33:08)– China (41:20) – Grains (51:10) – Brazil -- Referenced in the Show: Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:05-10:00) – Fed (09:10) – BIOSECURE Act (22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel (42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) – Fargo (19:50) – Briancon (30:00) – Brazil vs X -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration (06:30) - Needs v. realities (12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines? (22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty (33:55) – Pitfalls of international law (41:30) – How to build trust in institutions -- Referenced in the Show: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to Ukraine highlights changing geopolitical dynamics, while Elon Musk's controversy with Brazil over censorship broadens the conversation to global tech regulation. The episode concludes with an over/under segment, providing predictions on pressing issues like the Gaza ceasefire and Canada's railroad strike. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:34) - Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers and Media Coverage (04:05) - On-the-Ground Insights from Chicago (08:56) - Red Sea Tanker Attack and Global Shipping Disruptions (14:37) - Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations and Trump-Netanyahu Call (20:00) - India's Diplomatic Moves and Arms Import Strategy (25:18) - Elon Musk's Twitter Tantrum in Brazil (30:22) - Over/Under Predictions and Wrap-Up -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geopolitical implications, including Ukraine's coordination of Western-supplied weaponry and the potential long-term impacts on Russia and Ukraine's capabilities. -- Timestamps: (00:00) -  Intro (01:14) Welcoming SimTac and Initial Thoughts on Ukraine (02:06) - Ukraine's Recent Military Actions (07:15) - Russian Air Power and Tactical Challenges (14:54) - Ukraine's Strategic Objectives (25:02) - Future of the Conflict and Military Leadership (32:58) - European Sentiment and Infrastructure Threats 43:49) - Conclusion and Contact Information -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp