Palisades Gold Radio
Palisades Gold Radio
About Palisades Gold Radio
Bob Moriarty believes that there is a significant conflict between the debt-based system of countries like the UK and the US, and the resource-based system of the BRICS and global South countries. He believes this conflict started with the NATO attack on Russia and can be seen in the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Israel. He questions the motives behind NATO using aircraft carriers to threaten Gaza instead of other countries like Iran or Syria. He also expresses concerns that this conflict could escalate into World War III, with smaller players in the Middle East having an oversized impact due to their control over key strategic areas like the Red Sea. Bob believes that nobody ever truly wins in a war and hopes for a peaceful solution. He sees parallels between the UK's long-term rationing following WWII and fears that a similar circumstance could lead to another world war, especially considering the number of international players and incentives surrounding the Suez Canal area. He claims that Israel and the US want a "final solution" for Palestine, not unlike the US-led destruction of Iraq which resulted in millions of refugees. Bob expresses deep concerns about the possibility of banks closing and the chaos that could follow. He believes that if the Arabs were to turn off the oil supply, the world would experience a cold winter. He also discusses the Fed's decision to raise interest rates in an unprecedented way and suggests that it has destroyed the value of bonds and caused banks to take on extreme debt. Bob suggests that UBS Bank in Switzerland has been refusing to pay back depositors, indicating a broader liquidity crisis in the banking system. He believes that there is a lack of hedging and risk-management in regards to derivative instruments, which has pushed the system closer to crisis. Bob argues against the viability of renewable energy and electric vehicles, stating that they are financially unfeasible without government subsidies and would require significant environmental impact. He believes that nuclear power is the most economically viable and environmentally friendly energy source. He believes that the financial system is broken and in need of adult leadership and a better solution, including a decrease in US debt. Bob sees the current situation as part of a recurring pattern and believes that the best government is the one that interferes least. Talking Points From This Episode Bob believes that nobody ever wins a war, and that the current situation in the Middle East is perpetuated by US and NATO military intervention. Bob suggests investing in gold stocks and recommends investing in what's "hated the most" is a viable financial strategy. The best government is the one that governs the least. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Conflicts & Resources7:10 - Canals & Justifications12:55 - Cycles of Empire14:53 - Oil Supply Risks16:00 - Rising Rates & Debts20:10 - China Banking Problems20:57 - Debt Time Bomb?22:53 - Gold Contrarian Indicators31:04 - Rates & Asset Classes32:24 - Contrarian Approaches35:10 - Green Energy Fraud38:15 - Ukraine & Israel41:34 - Debt Hand Grenade42:36 - Positive Thoughts?46:39 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3 Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults to the show to discuss the physical and derivative metals markets. Bob explains the influence of the paper gold and silver derivatives on the physical gold and silver market. He discusses the financial industry model and the creation of paper assets, highlighting the importance of understanding the risks associated with these investments. He notes the number of structured ETF products has been steadily increasing. Basel III regulations have changed the landscape for banks in the gold market. The banking system needs to deleverage and it's important to diversify investments to protect against systemic risks. Different storage options, such as allocated and segregated storage, were discussed, stressing the need for investors to understand the terms and agreements of their chosen storage method. Finally, potential risks associated with investing in precious metals, including counterparty risk, sovereign immunity clauses, and political risks, were discussed, and the importance of conducting thorough research and due diligence before making investment decisions was emphasized. Talking Points From This Episode Bob discusses the risks associated with investing in physical metals, such as custodian fraud and derivative products with no physical exposure. He outlines potential issues related to product authenticity, chain of custody, sovereign immunity clauses, no warranties and accessibility. Investors should be proactive in mitigating potential risks and research different storage options. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Metals & Derivatives5:02 - Increasing Derivatives6:45 - Big Players & ETFS9:39 - Proxies & Price Exposure11:44 - UCIT Funds & Physical12:52 - More Underlying Risks15:26 - Basel III Bank Rules17:45 - Running A Depository27:18 - Jurisdictional Risks28:00 - Ownership & Intermediaries40:34 - Confiscation & Privacy48:28 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silver Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" to the show. Francis Hunt suggests that gold and silver prices have the potential to rise significantly. He believes that gold could reach $2,900 and silver could reach $45-50. He analyzes trends and technical indicators to understand the movement of these metals, noting that silver has recently broken through a descending grind line and is currently undergoing an aggressive rally. Hunt warns retail investors to be cautious of claims of perma-bullishness and to not chase in with large leverage. He discusses the role of volatility in technical setups and notes that high volatility signals bear markets while low volatility signals bull markets. He mentions the gold to silver ratio and how it indicates that silver is undervalued compared to gold. Hunt also discusses the performance of other metals such as palladium and platinum, highlighting their potential for significant gains. He emphasizes the importance of investing in physical gold and silver due to the financial system crisis caused by central banking debt. He also touches on the effects of central banking and fiat currency on economies and the importance of investing in precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Hunt discusses the yield curve inversion as a warning sign for an upcoming economic crisis. Overall, Hunt advises investors to be informed, prepared for worst-case scenarios, and to allocate investments in anti-fiats like gold and silver. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Dominoes & Safaris1:48 - Silver Charts10:42 - Silver Overbought?16:40 - Metals Price Volatility22:00 - Risk Reward Factors24:22 - Gold Outlook & Levels28:17 - Platinum/Palladium32:58 - Gold/Currencies40:14 - PM Spring Board?44:00 - Yield Curve Whiplash50:26 - Bitcoin Thoughts55:13 - Anti-Fiat Exposure57:43 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Volatility of precious metals enable tight stops and high risk/reward ratios Gold is close to reaching all time highs in multiple currencies and this highlights the end of central banks' schemes Yield curve inversion signals an impending economic crisis: stay prepared by having cash on hand and invest in safe-havens such as precious metals and/or Bitcoin Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperTwitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus,
Tom welcomes back Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics - Johns Hopkins University. In this discussion, Professor Steve Hanke emphasizes the potential benefits of dollarization for Argentina's economy. He references the country's history of economic instability, multiple currency and banking crises, and high inflation rates. Hanke suggests that dollarization, similar to the strategies implemented in Ecuador and El Salvador, could lead to a significant reduction in inflation and increase access to long-term credit. He also highlights the success of dollarization in countries like Panama and Hong Kong. Hanke argues that dollarization would align Argentina more closely with the United States, making its currency more secure and convertible. He points out that the stability brought by dollarization would create greater opportunities for the demand of Argentinian goods, particularly in the agricultural sector. He also states that dollarization simplifies borrowing and stabilizes foreign exchange, which benefits the circulation of the US dollar. However, Hanke acknowledges that a reserve would be needed for small change and suggests that it should be backed at a one-to-one rate with US dollars. He dismisses the idea of using gold or Bitcoin as unnecessary especially with a population already highly reliant on U.S. Dollar Notes. Hanke also addresses the political challenges of dollarization, mentioning that the concept may face opposition from the political class who would lose the ability to borrow money from a central bank. Additionally, he highlights the disproportionate impact of the inflation tax on lower-income individuals, underscoring the importance of maintaining a strong budget. Overall, Hanke asserts that dollarization can bring stability, reduce inflation, and create economic opportunities for Argentina. He believes that adopting the US dollar would help mitigate the country's past economic challenges and align it more closely with economically successful nations. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Argentine Monetary History6:52 - How To Dollarize12:37 - Argentina Reserves14:00 - Gold Backed Peso?16:07 - Gold Reserves17:05 - El Salvador & Bitcoin18:11 - Coinage Provisions?19:02 - Stability Benefits24:00 - Exports & Invoicing25:35 - US Dollar Demand27:00 - Bond Issuances?28:10 - BRICS Question?28:42 - Responsible Politics?29:12 - Citizenry & Budgets30:50 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Argentina attempted to dollarize the economy numerous times but failed due to lack of votes and unsustainable monetary policies. Steve Hankey suggested dollarization as a viable solution which would likely cause inflation to plummet and long-term credit to become accessible. A dollarized system would create a 'confidence shock' and benefit those on lower incomes by reducing the impact of the inflation tax. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/steve_hankeWebsite: https://thegoldsentimentreport.comWebsite: https://www.cato.org/people/hanke.htmlWebsite: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/about/co-directors/Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the Unive...
Tom welcomes Vince Lanci back to the show. Vince discusses how the availability of information about gold and precious metals has increased through decentralized, fragmented legacy media. This has allowed the average person to access and analyze reliable information about the gold industry, unlike in the past where information was kept hidden. He also mentions the disparity between reliable information from platforms like this one and the sensationalism seen in the mainstream media. Vince shares his opinion on the current gold price movements and his experience in the gold and silver markets. He talks about the influence of large, influential people in China buying gold, and how this has led to a rally in the gold market. He credits his mentor, a retired executive of the Bank of China, for shaping his understanding of the market. The conversation then shifts to the topic of Middle Eastern wars and their impact on the gold, silver, oil, and US dollar markets. Vince shares his observations of how these markets rally during a Middle Eastern war, and how they react once it becomes clear that there is no immediate threat to oil production. He also discusses his idea of "buy season" and how it typically occurs in January, July, and September. The discussion then moves to the evolution of the BRICS nations and their efforts to diversify their foreign exchange and internationalize their currencies. Vince talks about China's efforts to internationalize the Yuan and become a global reserve currency. He mentions the challenges China faces in setting up the necessary technology but notes their steady improvement in the supply chain of precious metals. Vince also touches on the role of the IMF and the BIS in international trade and their changing views on gold. He discusses how the IMF's paper on gold in international trade signaled a shift in the conversation and highlighted the need for the G7 to use gold as a trading tool to stay competitive with the BRICS. Finally, the conversation touches on micro-level decentralized finance and the insights of Zoltan Pozar, a consultant specializing in big picture banking and decentralized finance. Vince mentions the influence of Pozar's research in the West and China. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Media & Narratives10:12 - Vince's Avatar12:26 - Shanghai Buying19:26 - GLD/SLV Shenanigans30:10 - Israel Risk & PM Buying36:07 - PM Mkts & Seasonality40:47 - BRICS & Currencies50:17 - IMF & Int'l. Reserves56:20 - Argentina, IMF & Dollar1:02:17 - Zoltan Pozsar & Bonds1:08:42 - Concluding Thoughts1:10:14 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Vince has provided insights on the relationship between gold, stocks, and the Fed's easing policy, with advice to consider taking profits if long on gold. The IMF and the BIS have shifted their position suggesting it may be useful between G7 and BRICS countries. Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to discuss the potential for a bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. They believe that the current undervaluation of the metals and mining industry, coupled with various macroeconomic trends, presents an attractive investment opportunity. Tavi highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the gold mining sector and the importance of finding major discoveries in the juniors. They also discuss the potential impact of ESG policies and green agendas on gold production. Tavi Costa suggests that silver is worth paying attention to, citing factors such as increased imports from India and declining production from Peru and Mexico. He sees silver as a monetary and inflationary hedge. They discuss the macroeconomic indicators pointing towards a potential recession, as well as potential opportunities in the commodity space. Tavi Costa offers insights into the Argentine and Brazilian economies and suggests potential solutions to currency and investment issues in Brazil. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:33 - Bullish Technicals2:45 - Confirmation Levels6:00 - Majors & Mine Reserves9:23 - Miners Diversifying?11:32 - Mining Seasonality13:26 - Capital Rotation16:24 - Setup For Silver Miners18:00 - India Silver Imports19:38 - Fundamentals Vs. Technicals23:00 - Commodities to Equity Ratio28:23 - Commodities & Inflation33:20 - U.S. Bond Issuances38:10 - Inverted Yield Curve41:30 - Recession & Soft Landings43:45 - Politics in Argentina49:08 - Inflationary Eras51:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tavi discusses the opportunity for investors in the metals and mining industry. Macroeconomic developments and market changes indicate a potential recession in the near future, and further inflation appears to remain an issue. The cost of capital will be an important question if inflation remains high, and that in five to ten years, the changes in the market will be more obvious. ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Rudy Havenstein is a senior market commentator and former Reichsbank President who currently runs a Twitter parody account where he documents what's going on in the world of finance and educates people on related topics. He is inspired by the similarity between the issues of his time and the issues of today, such as inflation, and hopes to warn people about the dangers of fiat money. Havenstein believes that this generation is like a group of grandparents taking the whole family out to dinner and skipping out on the bill. He quotes Thomas Paine, who said, "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my children may have peace," to emphasize the need to address and resolve issues now for the sake of future generations. Havenstein discusses the difficulty of having civil discussions about polarizing topics, as people tend to become overly emotional and divided over even small issues. He calls for logical and calm discussions and warns against the influence of cable news and clickbait in pushing people to extreme viewpoints. He criticizes the current administration for picking the wrong people for positions, regardless of party affiliation, and emphasizes the importance of being aware of tribal emotions and discussing issues in a meaningful way. Havenstein also comments on the role of the media and individual responsibility in understanding and disseminating accurate information. He believes that objective and hard-hitting journalism is necessary to get an accurate picture of what is happening, particularly regarding the activities of the Federal Reserve. He discusses how quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rates benefit asset owners and the wealthy while leaving the average person vulnerable to price volatility. He expresses concern about the decline of the middle class into poverty and the reckless spending of the government. Havenstein believes that the Federal Reserve has an abysmal track record as a big bank regulator and blames Congress for not thinking about the long-term consequences of their actions. He also expresses concern about the potential for deflation and the unchecked money printing power of the Federal Reserve. He touches on the issue of wealth inequality and how quantitative easing has exacerbated this problem. He mentions various experts who have commented on this topic and believes that the government's priority has been to bail out the stock market and benefit the rich. Havenstein concludes by discussing gold as a potential hedge against instability and the trend of Indians, Russians, and Chinese buying gold to protect against local currency instability. He also discusses his own experiences with investing and offers advice on taking risks and not investing essential funds. Talking Points From This Episode Internet discourse has become very divisive, and it's important to permit disagreement while remaining civil. The Federal Reserve should be a target of criticism, but the public is often kept from getting an accurate picture of their activity. The American people must acknowledge the problems of the Federal Reserve and hold them accountable in order to reclaim their power and financial freedoms. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Rudy's Staid Pedigree4:14 - History & Polarization7:45 - Nuance & Verbal Skirmishes8:25 - Online Discourse & Wars12:34 - Janet Yellen's Bubble16:31 - Inflation & Real Costs19:46 - Manipulating the Verbage21:20 - Absurd Financial Angles25:30 - Central Bank 'Purpose'30:50 - Deflation & The Fed34:32 - Leverage & Bond Auctions36:39 - No Fiscal Restraints38:41 - Gold as Insurance40:28 - Gold & Argentina41:50 - Gold Equities & Volatility45:19 - Picking Tops/Bottoms47:38 - Infinite Money & Defaults49:22 - CPI Vs. Cost of Living53:00 - Elections & Vapid Politicans57:24 - WEF & Global Malignancy1:00:43 - Other Secret Clubs1:01:13 - Reasons for Hope1:06:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.
Tom welcomes back, Jim Welsh, founder and publisher of Macro Tides. Jim shares his perspectives and charts on the current state of the market. He discusses potential coming economic challenges and is concerned about the markets focus solely on CPI metrics. Note: For those interested in Jim's offerings he provides a special offer for his subscription in the guest links section below. One of the major concerns discussed was a significant increase in inflation recently. This prompted the Federal Reserve to respond by increasing the funds rate. However, Welsh cautioned that people should not disregard Fed policy of the 1970s, as they could influence future actions by the Fed. Welsh believes that the cause of the recent inflation surge is related to consumers entering the post-pandemic period with substantial savings, leading to rising wages over the past few years, which are now manifesting in higher consumer prices. Banks have tightened lending standards, making borrowing costlier for small businesses, while credit lines decline, indicating signs of strain. Although the GDP grew significantly in the third quarter, there are cautionary indications not dis-similar to those preceding the 2008 crisis. Jim stresses the importance of analyzing multiple factors to evaluate economic activity accurately. He notes that corporate bankruptcies have reached record highs, hinting at hidden issues despite seemingly positive growth. Moreover, it takes time for macro-level changes to impact behavior, leading to questions about the true significance of GDP as an indicator of real economic growth. Welsh's outlook is that the economy will likely slow down over the next six to nine months. The Federal Reserve aims to handle the situation cautiously, learning from the mistakes of the 1970s. He highlights the potential for financial markets to misjudge or discount the future, creating investment opportunities. Lastly, Jim discusses why the current U.S. political system is not up to the task and will remain polarized for some time. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Economy may enter a new 'lost decade' as economic growth wanes and market risk a further downturn. The Fed's approach may resemble that of the 1970s. Increasing political polarization may lead to economic downturn, making it difficult to pass fiscal and monetary policy that is beneficial. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:51 - CPI Numbers & Markets3:43 - Lag Times & Fed Policy9:05 - Rates & Mechanisms13:15 - Growth Vs. Prices14:48 - Past Monetary Policy19:53 - Fed Targets & Rate Cut24:43 - Secular Bull & Bear Mkts29:26 - Bonds/Yield Curve Charts32:10 - Economic Indicator Chart33:12 - Faster Hikes & Lending35:35 - TLT ETF Trend Chart38:32 - 2024 Dollar Decline42:12 - Gold A New Bull Market45:13 - S&P & US Bond Chart47:23 - Tech Stock Outlook49:56 - Secular Bear Market51:05 - Stock Mkt. Valuations53:56 - Fiscal Spending Power56:40 - Fed's Balance Sheet57:57 - Political Polarization1:01:57 - Wrap Up Guest Links/Jim's PromoWebsite: https://macrotides.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimWelshMacroE-Mail - Offer: email@example.com Jim's Special Offer: Promo Code "GOLD"Jim says, "I want to offer your viewers a 50% discount off their first month", so those interested can check his work out. This discount applies to monthly subscriptions to the "Weekly Technical Review". This is normally $35.00 so it would be $17.50. The promotion code is: GOLD Jim Welsh is a student of the financial markets and a seasoned veteran of investing with forty years of portfolio management experience, including security research & analysis, model building, portfolio construction, asset allocation, and is a specialist in technical analysis and macroeconomics. Did we mention he is also an all-around good guy? As a nationally recognized financial expert, Jim has been quoted in Barrons, the San Diego Union-Tribune, Consensus, the Big Picture, Econintersect,
Tom welcomes back Mark Magarian, Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments. They discuss the yield curve inversion and its historical track record of eventually un-inverting. He expressed optimism for gold and investing in gold-mining companies, citing their current low valuations and potential for significant returns. He emphasized the importance of timing and finding asymmetric bets in investments, as well as doing thorough research on companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value. Mark also discussed the caution needed when investing in Greenfield projects and the importance of free cashflow and profitability in investments. He shared his bullish view on energy, particularly oil and gas, and stressed the importance of cashflow as the ultimate king in investing. Additionally, he advised staying agnostic in investment decisions and not being swayed by biases or hype in certain sectors. Mark recommended finding a competent financial advisor for investment advice. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Bond Inversion & Markets5:33 - Signals & Un-inversions10:24 - Miners & Opportunity11:40 - Timing & The Markets16:23 - Focus & Approach19:00 - Portfolio Positioning21:05 - Gold & Silver22:47 - Gold Price Vs. Miners26:02 - Finding Good Assets30:17 - Producing Assets & Risks34:48 - Conviction & Methodology37:12 - Energy & Other Sectors42:18 - Bias & Finding Value47:23 - Wrap Up Talking Points from this Episode Research companies to identify investment opportunities with asymmetric upside potential and minimal downside risk. He stresses the importance of separating macro views from the actual results while investing. Look for assets that can have controlled cash flow, and assess if markets are pricing them correctly. Find a competent financial advisor to help with investments, especially when managing large sums of money. Guest Links:Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-magarian-96a6b624/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Maggers78 Mark Magarian is Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments LLC. Previously, he was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Wells Fargo Advisors. He has been in the business for over twenty years. The first half of his career was spent working with hedge funds, and John Paulson was one of his biggest clients. Career Highlights include working for Deutsche Bank in London as a Vice President and being part of the investment team at Gruss & Co. Since moving to the United States twelve years ago, he became a portfolio manager and has focused on a hard asset strategy that has, at its core, a focus on precious metals. He is a value investor at heart, but one with a macro perspective for our position in the market cycle. Specialties include managing a tactical growth portfolio and creating customized solutions.
Tom welcomes back Andrew Hoese from Finding Value Finance to the show. Andy runs an educational channel where he digs deep into economic data and conducts chart analysis. Andrew discusses the potential for inflation in the near future and its impact on various markets. He believes that demographic pressures and fractional reserve lending will lead to inflation and potentially a debt crisis if interest rates rise too high. He suggests that Jerome Powell may raise interest rates further to slow inflation, but this could make it unaffordable for millennials to buy homes. Hoese also discusses the possibility of a short-term slowdown in the real estate market due to deficits and the stimulus sent in 2020. Regardless further inflation may be coming. Andrew further analyzes the potential effects of transitioning from a low-interest rate to a high-interest rate environment. He suggests that this transition could impact businesses and individuals, potentially leading to a slowdown in certain sectors and causing companies to contract or go out of business. Hoese believes that gold may perform well under either an inflationary or slowdown economic environment. A rotation of investments may occur, with people turning to commodities and precious metals as a hedge against the general market. Overall, Andy emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term approach to investing and staying patient. He recommends considering sectors that have a supply deficit, such as uranium, oil, natural gas, metals like platinum and silver, and even homebuilders and banks. He also advises investors to do their research and watch their risk-reward levels. Hoese's analysis suggests that a shift in investment mindset may be necessary, with a focus on commodities and precious metals. He emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term approach to investing and being proactive in identifying investment opportunities. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Market Drivers Ahead7:36 - Inflation & Demographics15:56 - Purging The System18:51 - Bond Demand & Metals25:30 - Dollar Prospects27:50 - Capital-In Commodities32:24 - Timelines & Expectations39:10 - PPI/CPI & Commodities43:20 - Home Construction45:27 - Uranium Cycle & Chart48:10 - Opportunities & Plays52:02 - Gold Price & Miners55:49 - Oil & Gas Producers1:00:48 - OPEC & SPR Releases1:02:54 - Optimism & Conviction Talking Points From This Episode Andy believes that inflation is on the way and perhaps higher rates. Investors should take a long-term view and watch for opportunities in commodities, equities, and gold. Andrew discusses why investors must have conviction for the coming commodity bull market. Guest LinksWebsite: https://www.finding-value.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Finding_FinanceYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Finding_Finance Andy Hoese is a Colorado-based investor and entrepreneur who is passionate about teaching people about the financial markets. He was born in Minnesota and graduated with a degree in manufacturing engineering from California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, CA. Andy grew up with an affinity for mountain biking, dirt bikes, and competitive sports such as baseball and hockey. He was always good at math and science, which made his engineering degree the perfect fit. After working in aerospace engineering at his first job, he developed an obsession with investing and financial markets and would spend hours on YouTube researching and learning. Andy started his own YouTube channel, Finding Value Finance, in August 2020. He is an avid car enthusiast who owns several rotary cars, including an RX-7 FD and an RX-8. He also likes to get out on the track for some racing during the summer and fall, and has been working out regularly since the age of 16. Andy's three-pillar approach to investing includes ratios, market conditions, and technical analysis. He looks for alignment between these three factors when evalua...
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics speaks with Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, about various topics including silver usage in warfare, the role of gold as a "chameleon trade," and the economic outlook for gold investment. Jeff Christian estimates that globally, between 10-20 million ounces of silver are used each year for warfare-related purposes such as missiles and electronics. Jeff describes the various investment uses for gold, including inflation hedge, currency hedge, portfolio diversifier, commodity, safe haven, and as a form of savings. These factors should be taken into account when considering gold as an investment. Jeff discusses the current economic outlook and the various contentious views on gold investment. Some economists argue that there won't be another recession and that inflation is low enough.However, others believe that problems will emerge in the future, including increased recession, financial market instability, and political instability. Jeff notes that inflation is expected to remain in a range of 3-4.5% for the next year or two, and food inflation remains a major concern. He also addresses misconceptions about government statistics, such as the CPI and PPI, and emphasizes the adjustments made are to provide accurate economic measurements. Jeff mentions the increasing transparency of central banks and their purchases of gold to offset the collapse of private sector demand in certain countries. He clarifies that the US Treasury has not been "dumping" the US dollar but has sold treasuries due to changing interest rates. In terms of investment demand for gold and silver, Jeff notes that investors have the flexibility to buy or sell depending on current prices, creating a dynamic market. He mentions the increasing demand for silver due to its industrial applications and the changing dynamics within the auto industry. Jeff concludes by discussing the CPM Group's predictions for gold and silver prices, expecting them to rise in the coming year. As part of their services, CPM Group offers free resources and reports for clients and provides market alerts on long-term economic outlooks, debt, deficit, and gold. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Military Silver Usage5:54 - Gold's Various Roles11:45 - Gold Market Asymmetry12:56 - Short Term PM Headwinds?16:57 - Inflation From Here20:38 - Energy & Oil Reserves22:32 - Questioning Biases28:27 - Central Bank Buying34:00 - China & Treasuries36:56 - Misleading Datapoints40:20 - Silver Demand Roles46:19 - Tech. & Auto Industry50:50 - Platinum & Palladium51:38 - Debt Distractions54:18 - Tumultuous Election?55:47 - Gold Price Predictions58:55 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Jeff estimates that 10-20 million ounces of silver are used globally for defense each year, mostly in the US. Gold investment demand is driven by six main factors that traders should consider. CPM Group offers market alerts and other free resources to clients to help them make informed investment decisions in gold and silver. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
Tom welcomes back David Jensen. David is the owner of Jensen Strategic and a Mining Executive and Metals Analyst. David provides Palisades with a comprehensive presentation on the state of the economy. David discusses Jamie Dimon's recent concerns regarding an economic downturn driven by persistent goods price inflation and the Federal Reserve's liquidity reduction efforts. Jensen, blocked from Twitter and LinkedIn, now shares his insights on Substack. Dimon appears uncertain regarding the economy, as exemplified by his large stock sale and comments on keeping money in JP Morgan. They also review the Fed's limited control over long-term interest rates, despite its influence on the overnight rate and ongoing bond purchases. Interest rates may rise to 7%, possibly due to the weight of the national debt, while other financial experts anticipate even higher rates. David examines historical patterns where an increase in the M2 money supply leads to inflation, drawing parallels to the 1970s. The discussion also touches on London's 1987 control over the gold and silver markets, the effects of inflation through increased currency supply, and the contrasting expressions of suppressed inflation data and actual economic conditions. Jensen highlights the dangerous level of dependency the economy has on credit, with a total debt of $96 trillion. An interest rate shock could impose a staggering interest burden, challenging the solvency of banks. The conversation also covers the correlation between bonds and stocks, revealing a shift from financial instruments to tangible assets like precious metals due to the erosion of currency value. The yen carry trade, a financial strategy involving borrowing at low Japanese interest rates and investing in higher-yielding U.S. markets, is also discussed. As interest rates have risen, this trade has become less profitable, threatening the financial stability of funds involved. Wrapping up, Jensen emphasizes the significance of real assets, such as gold and silver, as a unit of fair measure, especially as public awareness of the Bank of England's promissory note trading system grows. He notes the increasing lease rates for gold as a sign of market stress and concludes with a metaphor pointing to the urgency of navigating the impending economic challenges. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Bans & Substack6:23 - Why is Dimon Afraid?11:42 - Cash & Capital Ratios13:06 - Fed & Economic Metrics14:28 - Corporate Bankruptcies17:22 - 70s & Inflation Concerns21:56 - Inflation Since 198732:23 - Current Money Supply33:46 - GDP "Growth"36:52 - Root of the Problem44:57 - Rate Damnation46:48 - Net Forward Outlook52:00 - Gold's Coming Role54:03 - Japan's Coming Crisis1:01:45 - Defensive Actions1:06:33 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, voiced his distrust in the Federal Reserve's approach in the past four weeks and highlighted the extreme rise in goods price inflation. Higher interest rates and rising large corporate bankruptcies are leading indicators that point towards an impending economic downturn. Precious metals and real assets are becoming increasingly popular as people reallocate their portfolios away from paper-based assets in response to currency inflation. Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenGettr: https://gettr.com/user/JensenDavidTelegram: https://t.me/Global_Political_Events David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Returning first to aviation, then,
Tom Bodrovics is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss global conflicts and the cycles that lead to them. Murrin believes that China is currently challenging the U.S. in a hegemonic battle, influenced by the Kondratiev cycles that have been playing out for centuries. He sees war as a natural selection process that arises when an empire reaches its peak, and describes it as entropic. Murrin believes that war is inevitable and that China is using hostile actions such as the release of COVID-19 and IP extraction to challenge the U.S. The ongoing Ukrainian-Russian conflict is described as a "bloody stalemate" due to the U.S.'s lack of support for Ukraine. Murrin argues that until America provides Ukraine with the necessary resources and confronts Putin with strength, he will continue to gain ground. He also discussed the role of leadership in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, the complexity of the Middle East conflict, and the need for Western countries to create coherence and order in order to present a strong front against external challenges. Murrin also discussed the Kondratiev cycles, to explain the potential for a third world war. He predicts an escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Iran potentially using its nuclear power for regional dominance. He warns of hypersonic cruise weapons and the need for the U.S. to maintain a military capability on par with its challengers. Murrin also suggests that the West must learn from the mistakes of the past, particularly in the Middle East, and avoid the hubris of thinking that one nation is exceptional. He emphasizes the importance of lateral thinking and adaptability in facing hegemonic challenges, and urges Western societies to demand more from their leaders and prioritize strategic thinking. In conclusion, the interview highlights the complexity of global conflicts and the need for Western countries to adapt and innovate in order to face these challenges. Murrin stresses the importance of understanding the cycles of history and learning from past mistakes, as well as the need for strong leadership and lateral thinking in navigating through these conflicts. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Conflicts & Cyclicality10:40 - Russia & West's Approach16:23 - Outcomes & Inevitability21:33 - U.S. Power & Hubris22:48 - Hamas/Israel Conflict34:20 - Chess Moves & WW III39:47 - Constriction & Commodities45:22 - Coming Commodity Cycle51:53 - Treasury Exits & China54:28 - Chinese Demographics58:10 - Conscription1:03:26 - Concluding Thoughts1:07:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The cyclical nature of global conflicts and the current hegemonic challenge between China and the U.S. The importance of adaptability and lateral thinking is emphasized in facing these challenges and avoiding past mistakes. Strong leadership and strategic thinking are necessary for Western countries to confront external threats and maintain stability. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX,
Tom welcomes back Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and commodities trader to discuss the FOMC meeting and its impact on the market. Michael shares his thoughts on why the Fed chose to not hike rates this month, despite the stimulants passed by the government to counteract their depressant measures. He believes that the Fed will continue to stay higher for longer, favoring cash flow over terminal value plays, due to four factors unique to the US economy. However, this could lead to wage inflation and a potential wage-price spiral. Michael also expresses concern that the Fed's actions are creating a "recency bias" in the market, leading to overvalued risk assets. He also discusses the changing environment for equity multiples and the impact of China's labor force entering the market. The conversation then shifts to the role of gold as a hedge against inflation, deflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. They also talk about the potential for a resurgence of the US dollar and its impact on central banks and gold. Michael and the interviewer then dive into the macroeconomic issues concerning Japan and China, particularly their demographic changes and the potential consequences for their economies. They also discuss the balance sheet recession in Japan and the need for a coordinated effort in China to find a solution. Lastly they conclude with a discussion on the long-term structural issues facing China and the potential for high inflation for the next 15 years. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - FOMC Meeting Thoughts7:05 - Wage Inflation Spiral12:23 - Faith in the Fed?14:16 - Q.E. & Risk Assets18:16 - Long Curve Concerns20:34 - Oil & OPEC Cuts22:30 - Dollar Wrecking Ball26:45 - Energy & Europe32:50 - Japan's Bond Market36:33 - B.O.B. Rally & Gold41:20 - Golden Opinions48:06 - Sovereign End-Game55:58 - Outlook for Japan1:01:24 - Demographics & China1:04:03 - China's Big Problem1:05:06 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode The economic resilience of the US, and how the Fed is staying higher for longer in favour of cash flow. The risk of wages causing wage-price spirals and the danger of the Fed delaying responding to this inflationary pressure. The large global economies of Japan and China's demographic changes and their economic challenges. Guest Links:Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/aboutTwitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboyArticle: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationusd-the-four-horsemen Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings. Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates to the show. Lawrence expresses skepticism towards the reported 4.9% annualized GDP growth in the US, believing it to be falsely inflated due to the exclusion of essential goods like gasoline and food. He also discusses the government's history of manipulating inflation and employment reports, urging investors to take all government information with a grain of salt and only consider what is true when making investment decisions. Lepard touches upon the current state of the media and the role of the internet in disintermediating large organizations like CNN and Fox News. They agree that the internet allows for more direct access to truth, but caution against the abundance of "noise" on the web. The conversation shifts to the financial markets, with Lepard stating that they are currently broken. He points to the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank as evidence, and believes that the government's response of printing more money is only hiding the truth. He predicts that inflation will be a major problem in the next 10 years and advises investors to consider this dynamic when making investment decisions. Lepard discusses the possibility of a sovereign currency crisis in the US, similar to those seen in third world countries. They point to the high interest expense of one trillion dollars a year due to the deficit, and estimate that this will only increase in the next few years. They also discuss the fragility of the world's economy, bank losses, and the potential consequences of excessive borrowing. The conversation then turns to the role of gold in protecting against inflation and the current divergence between gold mining stocks and the price of gold. Lepard predicts that gold will rise to $3000 in the next five years and that silver will follow suit. He also discusses the potential for silver to see a 100% increase in value in the next 18 months. Lepard concludes the interview by sharing his dislike for central banks and discussing his website and fund, which manages investments in gold mining stocks. He notes that while his slots are currently open, they may fill up quickly when the bull market returns. Time Stamp Reference0:00 - Introduction0:38 - GDP Statistics & Truth7:04 - Expectations & Markets13:52 - Labor & Inflation16:22 - Treasury Demand & Dollars22:54 - Bank Losses & Concerns31:16 - Powell & Pivots36:45 - Gold & The Endpoint38:07 - Golds Performance41:27 - Debt & Math Problems44:26 - Central Banks & Gold49:28 - Mining Equities54:25 - Silver & Probabilities59:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode He is skeptical of the recently reported 4.9% annualized GDP growth in the US, believing it to be falsely inflated and that high government debt could lead to a currency crisis. According to Lawrence, investment communities and hedge funds have yet to enter the gold market, with stocks in a downwave and the price of gold breaking its 1365 ceiling. Larry suggests investors should transition to commodities such as gold, silver, copper, oil and lithium to protect themselves against inflation and circumstances of economic downturn. Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvar...
Tom welcomes Danielle Booth back to the show to once again discuss the Fed and the state of the economy. Danielle explains why Powell needs to maintain "illusion or narrative" of higher interest rates for longer. This is crucial for households, commercial real estate developers, and corporations who have taken out loans and mortgages at lower rates. While a potential decrease of up to 100 basis points (5% to 4%) is possible by January, it is unlikely. Currently, rates are much higher and will have an impact on entities that are cashflow constrained. Danielle also discusses the various indicators to gauge the state of the economy, such as layoffs, disposable personal income, and stimulus checks. She noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has two surveys, one of which creates the unemployment rate and the other creates non-farm payrolls. It is important to consider both surveys to accurately assess the economy. Danielle also talks about the impact of the pandemic on the economy, with job losses, bankruptcies, and a potential recession looming. She mentioned the challenges faced by the repossession industry due to a lack of employees, and the pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell to prevent a market crash. Lastly, she also advised keeping an eye on bank reserves and understanding how companies are preparing for the end of the year with cost-cutting and potential layoffs. Overall, the economy is facing a potential stagflation as households struggle to keep up with inflation and debt obligations. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Higher For Longer2:34 - Debt Loads & Cash Flow5:00 - Recession Indications6:50 - Non-Farm Payroll12:03 - Wage Price Spiral?13:34 - Inflation Outlook15:48 - Freight Economic Costs17:25 - Sub-Prime Auto Loans20:20 - Powell & Election Year23:10 - Liquidity + Correction25:46 - Gov't Spending & Labor28:14 - End Of Year Outlook29:44 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Why rates are having a major impact on households, commercial real estate developers, and corporations who have taken out mortgages and loans. Why it's important to consider both jobless claims and payroll reports. Examine your portfolios and have cash on hand to watch what comes to pass for the end of the year. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventi...
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show Robert R. Prechter, the founder of Elliott Wave International. Robert believes that social mood shapes events, not the other way around. He argues that human beings go through cycles of positive and negative moods that have an impact on the stock market and other areas of society. He has observed that conflicts tend to break out when social mood is declining after reaching a peak. This correlation has been seen in the recent events in the Middle East. Bob explains how the human brain is conditioned to think linearly, which makes it difficult to understand the fractal nature of the stock market. He gives examples of how regular explanations for market changes often fail, while predictions using the Elliott wave model have been more successful. He also discusses how the recent mania for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies is a reflection of the positive social mood that has been prevalent since the end of the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he believes that this is coming to an end, and the world is entering a negative mood phase. Bob also talks about the potential for a deflationary crash and how investors can protect themselves by investing in safe assets like gold, silver, and floating rate notes. He recommends having an offshore bank account and a second passport as a backup. He also offers a special landing page for listeners of Palisades Gold, which provides free resources and discounted options for his book "Conquer the Crash" and various subscription services. Talking Points From This Episode Social mood drives market trends, not news events. Debt and speculation have caused a bubble in real estate and other investments. Take precautionary measures such as investing in gold and securing an offshore account to protect against potential market crashes. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Socionomics & Moods4:45 - Movement & Fractal Thinking6:00 - Commodities & Covid9:00 - Current Outlook & Optimism15:00 - Lockdown Effects18:30 - Supercycles & Trends20:00 - Bitcoin & Currencies24:30 - CBDC Concerns27:00 - Bond Rate Bomb29:20 - Feds Control Illusion32:40 - Politics & Sentiment34:30 - Real Estate Debt38:35 - Dollar Outlook & Gold41:00 - Deflationary Impulse43:45 - Zero-Day Derivatives45:50 - Banks & Bail-Ins?48:45 - Safety & Gold/Silver50:45 - Metal Storage & Passports52:30 - Africa & Passports54:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://www.elliottwave.com/PGRTwitter: https://twitter.com/elliottwaveintl Robert R. Prechter has authored 20 books on finance, including a New York Times bestseller. Since founding Elliott Wave International in 1979, Bob has focused on analyzing financial markets from a technical perspective. Prechter writes the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, one of the longest-running financial publications in existence today. Prechter has developed a theory of social causality called socionomics, whose main hypothesis is that waves of social mood prompt social actions, including trends in fashion, entertainment and the overall pricing of stocks. Prechter has co-authored several academic papers, including one demonstrating that the stock market can predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections when an incumbent is running. Bob has been a lifelong advocate of real money as opposed to fiat money.
In this special edition of Palisades Tom details his recent visit to Africa where he met up with Francis Hunt of "The Market Sniper" for a motorbike adventure across three countries. Francis, who was born in South Africa and has lived in the UK for 20 years, shares his insights on the diamond and gold industries in South Africa. They also discuss the role of Cecil John Rhodes, a well-renowned national hero of South Africa who was funded by powerful financiers and used this power to establish a monopoly on the diamond and commodities industry in the region. They also touch upon the historical context of how the British empire had a continual need due to their nursery banking lending system and the coming of an American era. The interviewee's experience in Zimbabwe highlights a struggling infrastructure and the effects of devaluation on the population. They discuss the rapid devaluation of the Zimbabwean currency The two then explore the economy of Zimbabwe where others said infrastructure had been broken and stolen. The country's inflation created a notorious bank note of $100 trillion symbolizing its depreciated currency and the challenges faced by the people due to this. They discuss the controversial interplay between gold, long-term US treasury rates, and national debts. Francis discusses and the potential for a demand-destroying event in the future. They also discuss the importance of taking a break from the markets and appreciating the beauty of nature. Although the trip may not have been comfortable, they discuss the importance of being prepared and self-reliant in any crisis. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:36 - Francis's Background4:30 - Cecil Rhodes Impact12:10 - Derivative Beginnings15:50 - African Contrasts19:14 - Infrastructure Failings26:05 - Levies & Fiat Trillions33:45 - Dollar & Bond Yields42:13 - Private Debt Hoarders50:50 - Yields & Inflation56:45 - Japan & Rate Peg59:50 - Bitcoin & Malfeasance1:05:30 - Commodities & Ratios1:08:12 - Africa Trip Details Talking Points From This Episode Tom and Francis traveled 1,200 miles through South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. They discussed Cecil John Rhodes and his role in bringing under the City of London cartels. They highlighted the current low interest rate environment and how it is driving people up the risk curve to find yield. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others ...
Tom welcomes back David Hay author, Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. David discusses various economic indicators that may signal the beginning of a recession. Tightening of credit conditions, with credit spreads expanding rapidly, and how the recent events in the Middle East have affected the safety trade for US Treasury bonds. David expressed concern about the current federal fiscal funding situation and its potential consequences. He also mentioned the conflicting views in the market between short-term investors and long-term investors, which is creating tension in the bond market. They discussed the Federal Reserve's policies and how they have continued to increase interest rates despite the slowing economy, which is starting to impact the real economy with higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions. David also shared his observations about the job market and the economy, noting the strength of nominal GDP but attributing it to the large deficit spending. They also talked about the current trends in the nuclear energy industry and how China and Russia are leading the way with new technologies, while the US is lagging behind. Environmental policies and the importance of separating fact from fiction in the green energy transition. Additionally, they touched on the current state of the oil industry and how it has managed to maintain record levels of production despite lower drilling activity. Lastly, David highlighted the importance of having dry powder, or cash, to take advantage of opportunities during market crashes. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Credit Contraction3:36 - Bonds As Safe Havens?5:41 - Treasury Demand10:28 - Investor Sentiment12:34 - Policy Lag & Labor15:30 - GDP Strength/Deficits18:25 - Fed & More Q.E.21:20 - Dollar Strength & Gold27:16 - Tech Bubbles & A.I.30:00 - Energy & Nuclear Outlook36:56 - SMR & Public Opinion40:20 - Renewables & Realism45:29 - Oil Industry & Drilling50:40 - Natural Gas52:49 - Bonds Now & 198755:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Week's Episode Evidence of a slowing economy with nominal GDP growth slipping, inflation cooling, and earnings, GDI and tax revenue falling. Increased borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions having an affect on housing and retail markets. Unexpectedly high oil production in the U.S. despite decreased drilling activity, which could lead to higher prices in a recession. Guest Links:Website: https://http://evergreengavekal.com/Substack: https://haymaker.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 David Hay is a longtime investment advisor and financial author from Bellevue, Washington. He and his wife, Mindy, now split their time between the Northwest, Southern California, and a few places in between (their two dogs love long road trips). They have six grandchildren, three of who live on the West Coast and three on the East Coast. Dave is desperately hoping for a better world for his grandchildren to grow up in than the one we have right now. In that regard, Dave is an ardent supporter of No Labels, a bipartisan political movement that currently includes roughly 70 members of Congress. He is the recently appointed Co-Chairman of No Labels’ Washington State organization. You can find his financial writings on his substack linked above on a weekly basis.
Tom welcomes Alfredo Pinel, the head of research at Game of Trades to discuss current macro trends. Pinel explains how Game of Trades can assist investors by reducing market noise, providing data-driven research, and simplifying complex information. One trend in the markets that has been grabbing attention is the risk rotation and the Fed pivot. This has caused an increase in S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratios, higher than those seen in the past few decades. According to Alfredo, there has been a clear rotation towards defensive stocks, such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples, since July. This shift is due to concerns about potential structural rises in interest rates. These defensive stocks have seen outperformance due to their compelling valuations and the potential for rates to stay high for some time. Currently, bond investors are pricing in a high level of volatility, while equity investors are remaining complacent. This could mean that equity investors should pay more attention to concerns around rate hikes and look into investing more defensively. However, there is a divide between the two markets as many analysts believe that the current rate hikes will not have a negative impact on earnings. This is reflected in the current divergence between leading economic indicators and analysts' expectations for earnings growth. The topic of banks and their exposure to monetary policy tightening was also discussed. Alfredo mentioned that due to government intervention in March, the impact of rising short rates has been avoided, but the mismatch of assets is still a risk for these banks. They have been implementing strategies to manage this risk, but regulators are also pushing for them to raise capital and adjust their hedging. If lending growth takes a hit for these banks, it could have a negative impact on the job market. Alfredo also discussed the potential impact of higher interest rates on the average consumer. With credit card debt continuing to rise and default rates increasing, it is important for consumers to be mindful of their spending habits in light of the economic pressures. The economies of the US and Europe are linked, and the effects of higher rates in Europe could have a spillover effect on the US. In terms of commodity markets, uranium prices have been on the rise due to increased demand from utilities and potential supply cuts from China and Russia. However, uranium ETFs and miners have not yet caught up, as the risk sentiment needs to improve. Lastly, Alfredo shared his views on oil prices and its inverse relationship with recession. While the price of oil may increase up to $100, anything beyond that could have serious ramifications for the economy and may not be priced in the market yet. Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction3:05 - Equity Market Risks7:45 - Rotations & Opportunity11:12 - MOVE Index & the VIX13:14 - Rates & S&P Earnings15:43 - Rates, Metrics, & Recession21:30 - Banks & Future Impacts25:13 - Lending Standards28:40 - Defaults & Credit Risks31:40 - Global Economic Risk35:21 - Dollar Performance?40:38 - Gold & Silver42:12 - Uranium46:22 - Oil Price Shocks51:52 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The markets have seen a rotation into defensive stocks since July due to increasing valuations and rising interest rates. Small businesses reliant on regional bank lending are expected to drive the job market, however, higher rates could take a toll on lending growth. Game of Trades provides actionable trades and strategies to members, ensuring the highest return possible. Guest LinksWebsite: https://www.gameoftrades.netBlog: https://www.gameoftrades.net/blog/Twitter: https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlfredoJPinelNewsletter: https://newsletter.gameoftrades.net Alfredo is the Head of Research at Game of Trades. In this role he leads efforts in managing the direction of the research and investment strategy,