Transition and the First 100 Days

Academy Securities Geopolitical Podcast

Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape

Transition and the First 100 Days

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:52
• Transition and Adversary Risk: 00:53 – 11:00
• Elements of Power and Multilateral Relationships: 11:01 – 24:23
• Technology, Manufacturing, and Competition with China: 24:24 – 33:51
• First 100 Days: 33:52 – End

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Key Points:

• Transition team - those expected to be nominated for national security positions are already engaged and working hand in hand with the agencies and departments that will be under their management

• China will remain a top focus for the incoming administration

• Russia will likely take some advantage of the transitionary period, but other competitors who seek better relations with the Biden administration are unlikely to cause trouble
• The Biden administration will focus on filling all the lower appointed positions that remained empty during the Trump administration

• Yellen’s nomination is designed to achieve bipartisan support
• China – while still expected to be treated as a strategic competitor, many of the economic advisors to the Biden administration do not have a history of being pro-tariff
• A Biden administration will put pressure on China by leaning on our partners
• China works in its best interest, and we are seeing it leverage not only its economic power, but now its information and military might
• There will be elements of compromise in our competition with China

• A threat to Taiwan may end the era of “strategic ambiguity” between the U.S. and China

• The tech industry is particularly vulnerable to China’s ambitions
• Vaccine distribution will impact our relationship with China

• The Belt and Road initiative will play a role in China’s pandemic response

Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.

Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on

fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.

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