Unrest in Hong Kong

Academy Securities Geopolitical SITREP

Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape

Table of Contents:

Hong Kong Protest Background: 00:00 - 4:33

Mainland China’s Response: 4:34 - 11:28

The View from Taiwan: 11:29 - 15:43

North Korea and China: 15:44 - 19:09

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Key Points:

• For the last several years, the market has failed to fully recognize that Hong Kong is a part of China - it isn’t completely independent.
• If the U.S. were to respond to the crisis, it would be with more difficult terms around trade.
• Much of the anti-government sentiment and protests began in April in response to an extradition bill.

• China and Hong Kong are part of “one country two systems”:

• The Hong Kong system and “basic law” protects civil freedoms of Hong Kong citizens.
• The protesters wish to highlight the deterioration of these freedoms and protections.

• The protests are not hierarchical or organized.

• The protesters and their recent actions risk alienating the population to their cause.

• China’s growing global influence could impact its response.
• China’s deft social media and AI capabilities are important considerations when evaluating these protests.
• Two U.S. Navy port visits have been canceled amid protests and accusations of U.S. involvement.
• The Chinese People’s Armed Police - not Army - has massed on the Hong Kong boarder.
• China is walking a fine line trying to diminish the impact of the protests while using limited force.

• An escalation by mainland China would result in more disruptions to trade negotiations with the U.S.
• Taiwan is watching what happens in Hong Kong very closely:

• The events in Hong Kong could lead to more anti-Chinese/anti-communist sentiment in Taiwan.

• The U.S. has approved new military sales to Taiwan and China has responded by increasing military operations around Taiwan.
• North Korea remains economically dependent on China and China remains a consideration as we evaluate the ongoing negotiations with North Korea and its behavior.